ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 6:39 AM EDT638
FXUS61 KILN 281039
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
639 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain mainly south of the Ohio River will taper off this
morning, leading to dry conditions across much of the area today.
Rain will overspread the region on Wednesday, and continue through
Thursday. Cooler air will also settle in over the Ohio Valley for
Wednesday, and will remain in place through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level low to the south is allowing some light rain to pivot
westward through extreme southern Ohio, northern Kentucky and
southeast Indiana early this morning. Expect this area of light rain
along a weak axis of convergence to weaken and get suppressed more
to the south through the morning, with rain chances generally
relegated to south of the Ohio River today. Also expect a tight
gradient of cloud cover today, with the Tri-State area partly to
mostly cloudy skies through the day, while areas further north see
more in the way of sunshine.
High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s where there
is more cloud cover to around 60 in areas with more sunshine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Upper low located over the Plains tonight strengthens as it moves
into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Light rain may start
to creep back into the Tri-State area tonight, but most areas will
likely remain dry. Given the closer proximity of the low and
increasing lift to the north of it, more steady rain will overspread
the area from south to north during the daytime Wednesday.
Lows tonight will range from upper 30s north to mid 40s south. Highs
on Wednesday will be cooler, with southern areas in the lower 50s
and northern areas in the mid 50s due to the slower onset of rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A somewhat active long term period is on tap, with a
strong/compact/anomalously-deep low pressure pivoting around a
larger longwave trof positioned from the Great Lakes through the nrn
Gulf Wednesday through Thursday. While the primary low will be
gradually filling with time, strong/deep forcing and sufficient
moisture will allow for banded rain to pivot about the nrn/wrn
periphery of the LL low center. Frontogenetical forcing amidst a
saturated profile will promote the maintenance of a cohesive band of
steady rain, initially off to the S and W of the local area early
Wednesday before pivoting to the N/NE into the ILN FA Wednesday
evening through the day Thursday. The steadiest/heaviest rain is
favored for locales near/S of the OH Rvr and near/E of the I-71
corridor, particularly Wednesday night into early Thursday afternoon.
The low pressure moves into the central Appalachians Thursday, with
wrap-around moisture continuing to support steady rain persisting
through the morning hours. Rain begins to decrease in intensity and
coverage throughout the afternoon, especially across SW parts of the
ILN FA as the low pressure pulls away farther to the NE. Expansive
cloud cover and rain, along with LL flow out of the N, will only
allow temps to top out around 50 degrees for most spots. In fact,
many locales may only reach into the upper 40s with a stiff NNE wind
of 15-20kts. Do think that the latest blended guidance is perhaps a
few degrees too warm with highs on Thursday, but will likely see
this trend downward in the coming fcst cycles.
With the duration of steady light/moderate rain lasting 24 to 36
hours for any one location, probs for at least 1" of rain are fairly
high (>60%) near/S of the OH Rvr and near/E of I-71. These probs
drop off fairly abruptly with NW extent into the drier/drought areas
of WC OH, with probs for at least 1" of rain in these areas less
than 20%. Parts of N/NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley into central
OH have the best probs (~20%) for at least 2" of rain by the time
the rain ends late Thursday evening.
Quieter conditions return Thursday night through Friday, with a mix
of sun and clouds during the daytime to wrap up the workweek. A
cooler airmass will have settled into the region during this time.
The places that see more sun (favored in the Tri-State and N KY)
have best chances for reaching the mid 50s, while other locations
further to the NE into central OH will be in the upper 40s and lower
50s. A few lake-effect rain showers may try to move into WC through
central OH during the afternoon/evening, but confidence in this
scenario is low.
By Saturday, another S/W pivots to the SE into the OH Vly, bringing
with it some enhanced cloud cover and the chance for a few light
rain showers into Saturday night and Sunday. This system exits to
the E late Sunday into next workweek, but will ensure that below
normal temps stick around through the entirety of the fcst period.
CPC is currently indicating a 40-50% of below normal temperatures in
the 6 to 10 day outlook into the first full week of November, with
persistent troughing across the ern third of the CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Patchy light rain or drizzle could still impact the Cincinnati
terminals early this morning, otherwise light rain will be suppressed
to the south for the remainder of the day. KCVG/KLUK/KILN will also
contend with a period of MVFR ceilings early this morning - possibly
even IFR at KCVG - likely improving to VFR 13Z-15Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period, with
mainly mid to high clouds from KDAY to KCMH/KLCK. The next batch of
rain likely holds off until after 12Z Wednesday. Winds will be from
east through the period, primarily 8 to 12 knots. Can't rule out some
gusts to 20 knots at times later this afternoon into tonight however
confidence was too low to put in the TAFs at this time.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR Ceilings are likely, with MVFR visibilities possible,
late Wednesday through Thursday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BPP
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 6:39 AM EDT---------------
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