CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 8:30 PM EDT414
FXUS61 KCLE 310030
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
830 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Deep low pressure will lift into New England tonight and early
Friday before slowing and gradually departing into the Canadian
Maritimes Saturday. This will leave a trough across the Great
Lakes through Saturday before high pressure over the Tennessee
Valley briefly builds into the region Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Well, Fall is definitely here to stay! The dynamic storm system
that has brought the widespread soaking rain and gusty winds
today is fully matured over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
regions, with infrared satellite and water vapor loops showing a
well-developed baroclinic leaf wrapping around the 850 mb low
associated with the mid-level deformation and TROWAL. This has
allowed steady rain to fill back in across all of north central
and NE Ohio over the past hour or two after a brief lull. This
rain will continue the rest of the evening before the steadiest
gradually exits eastward tonight through Friday morning as the
surface low, currently over central PA, lifts up toward New
England, with the associated 850 mb low and deeper mid-level
wraparound moisture lifting into upstate New York.
Overall, NBM POPS looked reasonable this evening through Friday
morning, but slightly increased values in north central and NE
Ohio through NW PA as well as slowed the exit of steadiest rain
since most HREF members, RAP, and NAM all show the steadier
rain being slow to exit. This is partly due to an increasing
amount of lake enhancement expected tonight and early Friday as
cold air advection deepens across Lake Erie with well-aligned
winds backing to NW and orienting perpendicular to the higher
terrain of the primary and secondary snowbelts. This will lead
to more persistent and locally heavier lake enhanced upslope
rains tonight into Friday morning in the higher terrain of north
central and NE Ohio through NW PA. These areas will likely see
an additional 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain through midday Friday,
with the greatest amounts in southern Cuyahoga, northern Medina,
northern Summit, northern Portage, Geauga, southern Lake,
Trumbull, southern Ashtabula, southern Erie, and northern
Crawford Counties.
As the storm system lifts deeper into New England Friday
afternoon and eventually the Canadian Maritimes Friday night
into Saturday, the mid/upper trough will remain across the Great
Lakes supporting continued cold air advection and broad
cyclonic W to NW flow, with lobes of mid-level moisture tied to
weak shortwaves rippling through the flow. This will allow for a
transition to purely lake-effect rain showers. There will likely
be a lull Friday afternoon before a shortwave and deeper
moisture push across the southern Great Lakes Friday evening
into Friday night allowing for a better lake response. H85
temps falling to -2 to -3 C Friday night combined with the
lift from the shortwave, improved synoptic moisture, and
increasing fetch as flow backs to westerly all support a band of
lake-effect rain developing east of Cleveland. Numerous HREF
members and the RAP are keying in on this band, and while
location remains uncertain, increased NBM POPS slightly in much
of the primary snowbelt east of Cleveland Friday evening through
Friday night. The long fetch, moderate lake induced
instability/increasing equilibrium levels as the cold air
deepens, and likely convergence near the south shore as the
boundary layer flow backs all support a band, so periods of
moderate to briefly heavy rain are possible.
Otherwise, 925 mb winds around 35-38 knots and cold air
advection across the lake leading to deep mixing will keep
winds gusty near the lakeshore tonight into Friday. Expect N
winds to gust to 35 to 45 mph at times near the lakeshore this
evening, backing to NW late tonight and Friday morning, with
gusts gradually decreasing to 30 to 35 mph. The probabilistic
guidance from HREF and RRFS continue to keep winds just below
advisory criteria (46 to 57 mph), so did not issue any Wind
Advisories.
Temperatures will remain cool and damp through the period, with
highs in the low/mid 50s Friday and lows in the mid 30s/low 40s
tonight and Friday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Lake-effect showers will continue Saturday as the cyclonic flow
pattern continues, but boundary layer flow should back to WSW
ahead of a strong shortwave dropping out of the Upper Midwest.
This should push the lake-effect band from Friday night offshore
of far NE Ohio and NW PA by midday Saturday, so expect a solid
lull in the afternoon. Made some hand edits to NBM POPS to
reflect this trend. Outside of the lake-effect, scattered
showers could occur anywhere Saturday and Saturday night as the
shortwave axis pivots across the region, so kept slight chance
to chance POPS outside of the snowbelt areas. Surface ridging
over the Tennessee Valley should finally build far enough north
Sunday and Sunday night for mainly dry conditions, but kept
chances near the lakeshore where SW flow will keep lake-effect
showers over the lake.
Highs will remain in the low/mid 50s Saturday and Sunday, with
lows falling into the low/mid 30s Saturday night and Sunday
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The quieter weather will be short lived as another strong
northern stream mid/upper trough swings through the Great Lakes
Monday, with a deep associated surface low crossing the
vicinity of Hudson Bay Monday and Monday night. This will drag a
cold front across the area Monday. A tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the front will lead to gusty SW winds Monday,
turning W to NW behind the front, so this could be another
situation where winds gust over 40 mph near the lakeshore Monday
into Monday night. Showers will also accompany the frontal
passage, so NBM POPS look reasonable Monday and Monday night.
The cold air advection does not look quiet as strong behind this
system Tuesday into Wednesday, so allowed for drier conditions
as suggested by the NBM, especially with high pressure trying to
build in. Another mid/upper trough diving toward the region
Wednesday night/Thursday could bring the next chance for
showers and gusty winds. Guidance differs on timing and strength
as expected 7 days out, so kept NBM POPS untouched which is
generally chance POPS.
Highs will generally moderate into the mid/upper 50s Monday
through Wednesday before cooling into the low/mid 50s by
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
At 00Z, low pressure extends from the East Coast to western New
York. Rain has ended across NW Ohio but continues from north
central Ohio eastward. The widespread rain will gradually end
from west to east, including around 04Z at CLE but possibly as
late as 15Z towards ERI. We will see a similar trend just
delayed a few hours for clearing from west to east as the
system pulls away to New England overnight. Gusty northwest
winds continue in the east with gusts of 25-35 knots possible
at CLE and ERI off Lake Erie through about 04Z before starting
to decrease. Winds will decrease some overnight before gusty
winds return after 14Z on Friday. The pressure gradient tightens
again on Friday and gusts of 25-30 knots will be common at
CLE/ERI/YNG/CAK/ and possibly MFD. Isolated gusts to 35 knots
will be possible after 18Z. Skies will cloud up again on Friday
morning with primarily VFR clouds in the 4-5K range. MVFR
possible at times in NE Ohio/NW PA.
Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania Friday through the weekend with lake
effect clouds and rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through Friday
as a low pressure system makes its way up the East Coast and
eventually to northern New England on Friday. Current winds from the
north near gales (30-35 knots) are currently impacting the central
and eastern basin, resulting in waves building to 6 to 10 feet,
locally higher. In the western basin, northerly winds of 20 to 25
knots are resulting in waves building to 4 to 6 feet. As the center
of the low shifts further north, a more northwest flow will become
dominant with similar wind speeds. A bit of uncertainty lies in when
winds will fall below gale force, but given hi-res guidance, opted
to extend the Gale Warning for the central and eastern basins
through 06Z Friday, although a more localized extension may be
needed into Friday morning. In addition, the western basin has a
Small Craft Advisory in effect through Friday evening. Once winds
fall below gale force late tonight into Friday morning, a Small
Craft will be needed for the remainder of the lake through Friday as
well.
On Saturday, high pressure builds over the region allowing for
northwest winds to weaken to 10 to 15 knots and waves diminished to
1 to 3 feet. These calmer conditions will persist through Sunday
before a surface trough settles south across the lake Sunday night
and increases southwest winds to 20 to 25 knots. The gradient
associated with this trough is expected to increase, resulting in
another potential period of near gales across Lake Erie on Monday.
Given the southwest flow, will have to monitor for any potential low
water conditions to develop across the western basin. This trough is
expected to gradually weaken on Tuesday, although a Small Craft
Advisory may be needed through Tuesday. High pressure returns on
Wednesday and should allow for relatively calm marine conditions to
return.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ142-143.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149-164>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...10
MARINE...77
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 8:30 PM EDT---------------
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