JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 8:42 PM EDT156
FXUS63 KJKL 300042 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
842 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread chilly rain showers will continue continue this
evening. Lighter showers are expected to linger into
Thursday/Thursday night along with brisk winds.
- Expect cool temperatures lasting through early next week. Daily
high temperatures will mainly stay in the 50s.
- Frost may develop in the valleys Friday night into Saturday
morning, mainly for areas along and west of I-75.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
Bands of showers continue to move across the region and have been
and remain more consistent/persistent in the north and west as an
upper low moves across middle TN at this time. Rainfall amounts
just downwind of Pine Mtn have only been near a quarter of an inch
so far and less than a half of an inch from eastern Harlan County
to Martin County and southeast of there. This upper low is progged
to meander northeast near the KY and VA border area overnight to
early on Thursday. This should bring more persistent by light to
at times moderate showers across southeastern portions of the
area with a lull in some areas as the upper low moves closer.
However, wraparound showers should return to the Bluegrass and
soth-central KY/I-75 corridor before dawn and then spread across
eastern KY on during the heating of the day on Thursday as low to
mid level moisture lingers and the flow become more upslope.
Hourly grids were adjusted based on radar and observation trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
In reviewing the current surface analysis, a single, expansive
synoptic feature is primarily responsible for the widespread
precipitation affecting the majority of the CONUS east of the
Mississippi River Valley. The cyclones center of circulation is
presently located over Western Tennessee and Western Kentucky. As
this low-pressure system maintains its circulation and pivots across
the region, rainfall will persist and remain extensive.
Consequently, local conditions are straightforward, characterized by
continuous, widespread rain and cooler temperatures.
During the remaining afternoon and evening hours, the closed upper-
level circulation that is responsible for the surface low-pressure
area is predicted to track southeastward into Middle Tennessee. This
progression will not alleviate the precipitation, as the forecast
area and the Commonwealth remain under the precipitation shield
through the afternoon and overnight period. Concurrently with the
potential for continued precipitation, winds at the H850 and H925
levels associated with the upper-level feature are expected to mix
down to the surface this afternoon. This process will result in
elevated wind speeds and gusts. Sustained winds near 10 mph with
gusts reaching 15 to 20 mph are possible. By the overnight period,
the trough axis and closed circulation are forecast to reorient and
commence a northeastward trajectory. This movement will cause both
the upper-level circulation and the surface low-pressure center to
traverse the heart of the CWA, arriving at the doorstep of the CWA
by Thursday morning.
Thursday is expected to bring continued rain showers as the
vertically stacked cyclone moves through the CWA. The cyclones
movement is predicted to be relatively progressive, allowing the
system to quickly exit the region and leave behind only lingering
post-frontal rain showers for Thursday evening. Similar to the wind
forecast for today, winds at the H850 and H925 levels surrounding
the circulation are forecast to mix down to the surface, resulting
in strong wind gusts throughout Thursday afternoon and into the
early overnight hours before the circulation ejects to the
northeast. Sustained wind speeds are anticipated to be between 15 to
20 mph with gusts potentially exceeding 25 mph through late Thursday
morning. The HREF wind probabilities indicate that a significant
portion of the area has a greater than 70% chance of experiencing
wind gusts over 25 mph, starting early Thursday afternoon and
continuing through late Thursday evening. Precipitation activity
will begin to diminish from west to east late Thursday evening and
into the overnight, with a low PoP chances by the end of the
forecast period. For the remainder of the forecast window, the
overall QPF totals are still projected to be widespread 1.25 inches,
with locally greater amounts possible.
In summary, the forecast period will be characterized by the passage
of a surface low-pressure system that will produce rain and enhanced
surface wind. Air temperatures will remain cool throughout the
period, with high temperatures today and Thursday only reaching the
low to mid 50s. Overnight lows will be relatively mild initially,
falling into the low to mid 40s tonight. However, the minimum
temperature on Thursday night will begin to decrease due to CAA
behind the exiting system, allowing temperatures to fall into the
mid to upper 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
There is good agreement in the guidance for amplified pattern to
continue for much of the first portion of the period. We do see
divergence in solutions show up by early next week. Friday, the
pesky upper low affecting the weather today will have progressed
northward into the New England states, with a new upper low dropping
into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The forecast soundings show
some lower level moisture that will probably be some cumulus clouds
Friday afternoon. This combined with the westerly flow will keep the
afternoon highs below normal for this time of year. Friday night,
there will be some chance of frost, but this will depend on any high
clouds as seen in some of the forecast soundings and time heights.
There is also the potential that some of this is more fog than
frost. The next upper level low approaches the Ohio Vally on
Saturday and this will mainly bring in some mid and high clouds in
the the area, with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to
upper 50s.
This amplified flow aloft and waves running throughout will keep
some mix of clouds and even some indications of small chances of
precipitation Saturday night into at least Monday. However, the
guidance remains uncertain on details in regards to this next upper
low, with some of the deterministic data diving this feature toward
the Gulf and deepening a surface low in the Southeast US. This could
keep much of the precipitation to the south of Eastern Kentucky.
This uncertainty also shows up when looking at some of the grand
ensemble mean data where you see light QPF, but no signal for a
surface low. Given the upper low track and probabilities of
measurable precipitation in the ensembles would suggest areas south
of I-64 have the best shot of seeing measurable precipitation. In
the wake of this upper low, we see signal for height rises and a
surface high to progress into the Ohio Vally bringing in drier
weather for the most part, with temperatures nudging closer to
normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
Downwind of the VA border some locations were reporting VFR
outside of showers while MVFR was reported in locations further
to the west such as KI35 west to KLOZ and KSME and south at
issuance time. Further north, however, IFR was reported. Bands of
showers should continue to rotate across the region as an upper
level low moves from southern middle TN northeast near the KY and
VA border later tonight into early on Thu before working across WV
and into western PA to end the period. Bands of showers initially
more persistent in the north and west should become more
scattered across the southwest and west through 06Z but remain
with greater coverage in the east through 06Z before the center of
the upper low moves into the area and showers become more
scattered areawide before increasing in coverage again from the
west toward dawn. Upslope flow and wraparound moisture and the
heating of the day will bring rounds of showers across the area
through the end of the period though they should become more
scattered by 16Z to 18Z in the west, gradually decreasing in
coverage further to the east through the end of the period. IFR
and MVFR should be most common through 06Z with some areas of
LIFR before IFR and LIFR prevail to end the period. Winds
overnight should be variable at no more than 5 to 8KT, and then
become west to northwest at 5 to 15KT to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 8:42 PM EDT---------------
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