CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 8:15 PM EDT297
FXUS61 KCLE 300015
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
815 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift northeast from the Ohio Valley tonight and
move along the central Appalachians on Thursday before exiting to
the northeast Thursday night. A trough will linger in the low's
wake into the weekend with high pressure returning on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A low pressure system will impact the region during the near
term period, bringing widespread rain and gusty winds to most of
the area tonight through Thursday night.
The first few hours of the period will remain dry, however rain
chances will begin to increase from the south after about 21Z/5
PM as the center of the low, which is currently over the the
Tennessee Valley, begins to lift northeast into the Ohio
Valley. It may take a bit for precip to reach the surface since
current dew point depressions are 15 to 20 degrees, but
currently thinking that higher rain chances will build into
southern zones by about 8 PM/00Z tonight. From there, stratiform
rain will overspread the majority of the area through the
overnight as the low advances northeast generally along the
spine of the central Appalachians. The highest PoPs will be
located generally east of the I-75 corridor through much of
Thursday, although a more western track could result in higher
PoPs/QPF over NW OH (which certainly could use some rain). Rain
could become a bit more scattered across NE OH/NW PA as dry air
wraps into the low late Thursday morning into the afternoon so
have a period where PoPs decrease from categorical (greater then
75 percent) to likely (55 to 74 percent) for a few hours before
rain fills back and lake enhancement begins to develops as the
low lifts northeast Thursday evening. PoPs should decrease in
western zones Ohio by Thursday evening. QPF values prior to the
development of lake-enhanced precip late Thursday night is in
the 1 to 1.5 inch range east of I-75, although a few spots along
and east of I-71 may exceed 2 inches where areas of moderate to
heavy rain persist. The overall flooding risk is low outside of
potential nuisance high water issues in poor drainage areas. If
the current forecast low track materializes, locations along
and west of I-75 will see much lower values, generally 0.5 inch
or lower.
It will be quite blustery and chilly Thursday with northeast wind
gusts to 25 to 30 mph anticipated downwind from Lake Erie mid-
morning through the afternoon with winds shifting to the
north/northeast Thursday evening. Wind gusts will be higher
along the immediate lakeshore, where gusts will likely reach 30
to 40 mph Thursday into Thursday evening. Gusts in this area may
periodically approach 45 mph Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. At this point, confidence is still too low to warrant
the issuance of a Wind Advisory along the lakeshore, although
one may be needed if confidence increases in future updates. The
gusty winds will make it feel quite chilly Thursday and
Thursday night. Highs will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s
during the day with apparent temps in the low to mid 40s and
lows will be in the mid to upper 30s with wind chill values in
the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Gusty, rainy conditions will persist through Halloween/Friday,
although the higher rain chances will be confined to the snowbelt
region of NE OH/NW PA thanks to lake-enhancement. Locations outside
of the snowbelt should be dry for the most part, but isolated
light showers downwind from Lake Michigan may attempt to sneak
into the CWA during peak diurnal instability Friday afternoon.
Widespread wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph are likely during the
afternoon Friday with higher gusts to 35 to 40+ mph likely along
the immediate lakeshore late Friday morning through early
Friday evening. The loss of diurnal mixing will allow gusts to
diminish after sunset. High temps will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s, however locations that remain dry could see high
temps in the mid 50s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s across
most of the area and spots close to the lakeshore in NE OH/NW PA
could stay in the lower 40s Friday night. Apparent temperatures
will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s after sunset Friday
evening.
Lake effect rain showers will likely continue through Saturday with
PoPs decreasing as weak upper ridging and surface high pressure
build east into the area. Guidance diverges a bit Saturday
night with deterministic guidance including the GFS/ECMWF
placing dry weather and over the region and the Canadian
continuing lake effect rain showers through the end of the short
term period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A lull in lake effect/enhanced showers is likely during the day
Sunday as high pressure briefly settles over the region. Lake
effect rain showers could redevelop Sunday night as the upper
ridge exits to the east and a cutoff low pushes southeast from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southeastern CONUS. Periods
of lake-enhanced showers are possible through the long term
period as a series of disturbances likely cross the region, but
the timing/placement of showers will rely on the progression of
the aforementioned low and the upper level pattern. Opted for
broad PoPs late weekend through Wednesday and will continue to
refine as the synoptic setup becomes a bit more clear. Highs
will likely be in the low to mid 50s on Sunday with temps
recovering by a few degrees Monday through midweek. Overnight
lows in the 30s are favored each night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure over the Mid-Missippi valley will track northeast
to near Pittsburgh on Thursday afternoon. Rain ahead of this
system is arriving from the south and will become widespread
through about 04Z. A long duration rain will occur at all
terminals except TOL who will be on the fringe with
intermittent rain. Elsewhere, the other terminals will see a
decline to IFR ceilings and visibilities which will persist
through the day on Thursday. Some breaks in the rain will occur
across northeast Ohio between 15-19Z before filling in again
during the late afternoon. Conditions will remain poor during
the breaks with mist or patchy fog keeping visibilities
restricted with low ceilings.
The other concern through the period will be breezy northeast to
north winds. Winds are forecast to increase between 09-14Z as
the gradient tightens ahead of the approaching low. There is
some uncertainty in wind gusts as the wind field becomes strong
but rain has a stabilizing effect on boundary layer mixing. In
general expecting to see some gusts up to 25 knots for inland
locations and stronger gusts to 35 knots for lakeshore terminals
including CLE/TOL/ERI.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in occasional rain Thursday night.
Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania Friday through the weekend with lake effect clouds
and rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
ENE winds will be on the increase through tonight into Thursday
thanks to a strengthening low pressure system with sustained gale
force winds 35kts expected while turning northerly and then
northwesterly. In the northeasterly winds, open water zones will
have 8-13ft waves expected late tonight through Thursday, and in the
nearshore zones, slightly less at 4-8ft for the central and eastern
basins. West of the islands, some protection in the northeast winds
expected, and will go without gales here, but waves still possible
in the 3-6ft range. Thursday night, winds primarily northwesterly,
and will gradually ease below gale force criteria, but with the
changed wind direction, central basin nearshore areas will likely
see wave height increases to 7-10ft. The gradual decrease in winds
and wave heights will continue through Friday, Friday night, and
into Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed after
the Gale Warning ends, and will address that accordingly at that
time, but despite winds coming down, rough conditions should be
expected over the next several days.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ142-143.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>149.
Gale Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>149-
164>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...26
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 8:15 PM EDT---------------
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