PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 2:28 PM CDT536
FXUS63 KPAH 281928
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
228 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of drizzle this afternoon will eventually give way to
another period of steady rain tonight through Wednesday.
Additional rainfall between 1 to 2 inches is expected.
- Dry weather returns late in the week, along with a return of
sunshine for Halloween. Some light rain can't be ruled out
Saturday night into Sunday, but amounts will be quite light if
they occur.
- Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend,
but some moderation is expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Upper level energy centered over Kansas this afternoon will dive
southeastward into the TN Valley on Wednesday. Meanwhile, surface
low pressure over northeast TX will rapidly deepen as it lifts
towards Memphis, TN tomorrow. A deep upper low will form as well,
providing ample lift for widespread moderate rain, which spreads
across the region tonight through the day on Wednesday. The pressure
gradient also tightens up with the deepening surface low to our
south, resulting in breezy conditions (25-30 mph gusts out of the
northeast). Not much change regarding rainfall amounts, still
looking at a general 1 to 2 inches. Rates shouldn't be more than
0.25" to 0.50" per hour at most, so not expecting any flooding
issues, just a steady rain.
The system pulls away into the Appalachians on Thursday, with dry
weather returning late in the week. Looks pretty darn nice for
Halloween with highs around 60 and then falling into the low to mid
50s for trick-or-treat time. Not much wind either along with mostly
clear skies.
Broad troughing remains across the eastern half of the U.S. into the
weekend. Weak energy sliding down in the northwest flow aloft may be
just enough to kick off some light showers at some point over the
weekend, but amounts will be quite light if any occurs at all.
Guidance is trending towards a cutoff upper low developing across
the Deep South early in the week, but most suggest any precip
associated with it remains south of our cwa. However, there is
enough uncertainty that some rain sneaking up our way Monday into
Tuesday can't be completely ruled out. Will continue with the dry
forecast for now and see if the northward shift latches on. Ridging
developing mid next week should allow a nice warm-up back into the
60s, and possibly even near 70. Next substantial system of note may
arrive at the end of the week, with ensembles pinging Friday Nov
7th).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
Low stratus will prevail for the next 24 hours. Primarily IFR
conditions this afternoon are expected to deteriorate to mainly
LIFR cigs overnight into tomorrow morning. -DZ will linger this
afternoon with RA spreading from southwest to northeast this
evening into the overnight and continuing through tomorrow.
Vsbys will be reduced to IFR levels at times. Light easterly
winds today will increase to 6-10 kts overnight and take on
more of a northeasterly component into tomorrow morning.
Gradient tightens tomorrow, with sustained winds of 10-15 kts
and gusts of around 20 kts possible by late morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 28, 2:28 PM CDT---------------
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