IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 6:40 AM EDT606
FXUS63 KIWX 251040
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
640 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and dry conditions will persist through early next week.
- Light rain is possible during the middle and end of next week
with temperatures remaining cool.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
High-amplitude ridging between bookend upper lows across New England
and the Canadian Prairies will maintain high pressure and dry
conditions over the Great Lakes through early next week. A weak
shortwave does pass through the area later today but anything more
than a stray sprinkle is unlikely given dry/stable airmass in place
and overall weak forcing. Do expect a fair amount of mid/upper level
clouds around today which will keep highs in the 50s despite some
moderation of low level thermal profiles. Surface anticylcone
remains locked over the Lower Great Lakes supplying our area with
cool/dry easterly flow through early next week. This will keep highs
in the 50s to around 60F with lows each night in the mid/upper 30s.
Steady wind and marginal temps should prevent widespread frost but
the growing season will likely be declared over for the rest of our
counties anyway given recent widespread temps at or below 32F.
00Z guidance is still struggling with the evolution of a complex
mid/upper pattern featuring three distinct upper lows for the middle
and end of next week. Light rain is possible Tue night into Wed and
possibly beyond as these upper lows pinwheel over the eastern CONUS.
However, we still remain in a zone of cool/dry low level flow with
best chances west and south. Did not deviate far from NBM PoP's but
additional changes are likely in the coming days. Of somewhat higher
confidence is the expectation that temps remain slightly on the cool
side of climo.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Some patchy shallow fog is being reported in regional
observations this morning due to strong radiational cooling
conditions. For the most part however, this is being manifested
as mainly a frost setup with probability of vis restrictions at
terminals remaining low early this morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will persist this period. Some increase in mid level
cloudiness is expected this morning due to elevated moisture
advection working northeast into northern Indiana. A weak
northern stream mid level trough will shut off this elevated
moisture transport later today/this evening with decreasing
mid/high clouds tonight. Eastward progression of low level ridge
axis will result in light easterly flow today into tonight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 6:40 AM EDT---------------
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