ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:05 PM EDT276
FXUS61 KILN 251805
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
205 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will provide mainly dry conditions through
this weekend. Below normal temperatures will continue through the
middle of next week. Although a stray shower cannot be ruled out
south of the Ohio River Sunday night and early Monday, the next
chance for appreciable widespread rain will hold off until midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The mid level flow pattern shows confluent flow over the area with a
cutoff low over the Southern Plains and ridge over the Upper MS
Valley. Extensive mid and high level clouds currently across the area
to be suppressed southward overnight as the region becomes more
under the influence of the northern stream - as a sheared shortwave
drops thru the area.
A very narrow axis of higher PWAT air and weak convergence may lead
to a very light rain shower or sprinkle across the far south late.
Milder temperatures to be observed tonight with lows from the mid
30s in the north to the mid 40s far south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level low to migrate slowly east from the Southern Plains into
the Lower MS Valley under a ridge that moves into the Great Lakes. Mid
and high level clouds are suppressed to the south with most of the
area will see abundant sunshine. Some lingering clouds across
northern Kentucky will result in mostly to partly cloudy sky
conditions. Temperatures rise to highs from the upper 50s to the
lower 60s.
As the mid level low moves slowly east into the western TN Valley
some model solutions begin to introduce light rain into our far
southern counties late Sunday night. Most of the solutions keep
ILN/s area dry - so will slow down onset and decrease pops to only a
slight chance late across the far south. Low temperatures to range
from the mid 30s in the north to the mid 40s far south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The complex jet stream pattern continues into early next week with
the local area pinched between two troughs, one over the northeast
US and the other dropping into the northern/central Plains and upper
Midwest. Heading into midweek, the western trough dives
southeastward, interacting/merging with the eastern trough. By
Wednesday, both troughs will be isolated from the primary jet stream
flow which is displaced well to the north across Canada. By the end
of the week, the jet stream will return to the western CONUS,
stretching toward the Plains. This drives the next weather system
into the Midwest and Ohio Valley next weekend.
Even with the complex jet stream pattern, the overall day to day
weather forecast remains unchanged over the extended period.
Temperatures are near to slightly below normal due to the expansive
trough over the eastern US. As the western trough dives into the
Southeast US, a surface low pressure will descend into the middle
Mississippi River and lower Ohio River region. Chances of rain
arrive first in the southern portions of the area Monday night into
Tuesday, overspreading the local area Wednesday as the low pressure
moves through the Tennessee/Kentucky regions. PoPs may increase or
decrease as confidence changes with the evolution of the low
pressure into the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast period. An
extensive shield of mid and high level clouds across the area will
be suppressed southward overnight as the region becomes more under
the influence of the northern stream - as a sheared shortwave drops
thru the area. Expect mainly high level clouds - thickest across the
southern TAF sites on Sunday.
Easterly winds at 5-7kts drop off to 5kts or less overnight and then
increase to 7-10kts Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:05 PM EDT---------------
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