PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:35 PM EDT277
FXUS61 KPBZ 262335
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
735 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and nocturnal frost and freeze potential will
continue through Tuesday. Forecast uncertainty increases
Wednesday and beyond, however, the overall consensus is rain
chances with seasonably cool weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues under high pressure
- Frost/freeze potential early Monday
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure and subsidence dominate the near term forecast,
keeping us dry with seasonable temperatures and light winds.
Calm and clear conditions tonight will once again support frost
and freeze concerns. Chances of a frost are generally above 50%
for the entire area save portions of northern West Virginia and
the valley west of Chestnut ridge. As for freeze, chances are
above 50% for much of the I-80 corridor. The synoptic pattern
features a rex block in place on Monday with a mid-level high
across the Great Lakes and a weak low slowly meandering by to
our south. Despite shortwave energy rotating through an
elongated trough off to our east, surface high pressure will
provide dry weather with seasonable temperatures. A tighter
pressure gradient between the high and the low to our south will
stiffen the surface flow out of the east, so it may be a bit
breezy at times in the afternoon. Cloud coverage will start to
nudge farther north as well but struggle to do so as it runs
into drier air.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mostly dry and seasonable
- Frost and freeze threat each night
----------------------------------------------------------------
The northward extent of the clouds will impact Monday night
frost and freeze potential, though aside from the clouds not
confident that we'll see calm enough wind to provide widespread
favorable conditions anyway with the highest chance in sheltered
areas. Still, we're likely to cool off below 36F with a >50%
chance from I-70 and north and areas north of Pittsburgh have
elevated probability for sub-freezing lows.
The pattern remains relatively similar on Tuesday with still
seasonable temperatures as the low to our south slides offshore and
the blocking pattern starts to break down. Some low probability rain
chances will sneak into northern WV dependent on the track of the
low, but the majority of ensemble members suggest it's too far south
and east to bring much to our area. That will change beginning on
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Unsettled pattern through week's end
- Cooler weather returns
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A longwave trough will dig and deepen across the central CONUS on
Wednesday as a cutoff low develops at its base. There has been
increasing ensemble agreement on the positioning of the cutoff low
sliding from MO/AR into AL/MS/TN. This will support surface
cyclogenesis in the western Tennessee Valley region before
undergoing occlusion as it reaches the Southeast late Wednesday into
early Thursday.
At this point is where we start to see the uncertainty grow. As the
initial occluded low undergoes cyclolysis, energy looks to transfer
to a new developing surface low downstream of the cutoff mid-level
low. The primary discrepancy from this point forward is the timing
of the mid-level pattern, where the new surface low develops, and
its track up the coast. The majority of guidance forms the low
somewhere across the Carolinas and kicks it northeast with track
spread from the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS ranging from the Jersey Shore to
eastern Indiana; the majority are clustered along a path up the
spine of the Appalachians with lower probability tracks to our west
and east. The "driest" solution would be a track simply too far east
and resulting in weak ridging locally, and while possible, is a
lower probability one. In any scenario, at least measurable rain for
our area is increasingly higher probability Thursday-Friday with
still very wide goal posts on amounts as entirely too much
uncertainty still exits to start to dig into numbers.
Even more uncertainty comes into play to close out the week after
the low passes by. There could be potential influence from Hurricane
Melissa at it slides well offshore of the East Coast, or the low
could pull back and hover closer locally providing a cooler and
wetter weekend outlook; the latter is the less probable at this time
with a low member representation within the grand ensemble solution.
Regardless, it's more likely than not that we don't completely dry
out at least to start the weekend with lingering wrap around
moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR continues across the region. Skies are clear with diurnal cloud
cover scattering after sunset. The pressure gradient will tighten a
little overnight and this is expected to keep winds from going calm.
At this time fog impacts at ports remain low confidence and HREF
probabilities for VIS <6 SM peak near 20% for DUJ/FKL, with the best
signal for fog away from us in north central PA.
.OUTLOOK...
Areawide VFR continues into early next week as high pressure holds
firm. Another system could return rain and restriction chances from
the south by Tuesday night or Wednesday.&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLB/88
NEAR TERM...Cermak/88
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Cermak/AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 7:35 PM EDT---------------
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