ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 1:22 AM EDT791
FXUS61 KILN 250522
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
122 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will provide mainly dry conditions through
this weekend. Below normal temperatures will continue through the
middle of next week. Although a stray shower cannot be ruled out
south of the Ohio River early Sunday, the next chance for appreciable
widespread rain will hold off until midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
With mainly clear skies and light winds across the OH Vly, ideal
radiational cooling conditions are allowing temps to dip into the mid
30s already. Some freezing/subfreezing temps are expected by daybreak,
particularly in central OH and the lower Scioto Vly into NE KY. Given
latest short-term data and obs, the Freeze Warning and Frost
Advisory are well placed, with some rural/sheltered temps in the
upper 20s likely by daybreak from central OH through NE KY.
Sfc high pressure drifts E of the local area through the daytime
today, with NE LL flow becoming established. Flow aloft will
gradually become a bit more zonal as a S/W pivots SE into the Great
Lakes region with a more well-defined closed low meandering about the
south-central plains. The S/W moving into the nrn OH Vly by tonight
will provide a reinforcing shot of LL dry air, which will help shunt
the higher PW air off to our S into the day Sunday. This should keep
most, if not all, of the local area dry through at least Monday.
An influx of mid/high clouds is expected through today, which will
keep highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Quiet conditions prevail through the short term period as well, even
as a narrow axis of higher PW air and weak convergence promotes the
development of some light SHRA, which may graze far srn parts of the
ILN FA late tonight into Sunday morning. The latest guidance
suggests that most, if not all, of the local area remains completely
dry through Sunday, but suppose a stray SHRA or sprinkle cannot be
ruled out in N KY late tonight through mid morning Sunday.
Otherwise, milder temps are on tap tonight as expansive clouds keep
temps generally in the mid 40s in the Tri-State to the mid 30s in
central OH. While some patchy rural frost cannot be ruled out early
Sunday in central OH and the lower Scioto Valley, most spots will be
frost-free tonight. Temps rebound to around 60 degrees area-wide on
Sunday, with abundant sunshine near/N of the OH Rvr and some
lingering clouds in N KY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure shifts northeast of the Ohio Valley Sunday
night giving way to an uncertain synoptic setup this coming week. As
of now, it appears that a flattening upper level trough moves just
south of Ohio Valley to start the work week. This leaves our area in
between an amplifying ridge the north and weak troughing to the
south. Low end rain chances exist in this setup, however the latest
guidance suggest dry conditions may win out.
For the middle and end of the work week, uncertainty increases
dramatically. This uncertainty is associated with how the next
shortwave trough dropping out of the Northern Plains evolves. One
cluster of medium range ensemble members has surface low forming
south, but in the vicinity, of the Ohio Valley in response to the
upper level trough. Another cluster of solutions progresses this
trough further east and develops a coastal low. The sensible weather
in our area will be very different depending on how the trough and
subsequent surface low evolve. A low in the vicinity of the Ohio
Valley would likely bring wet and breezy conditions. A low over the
coast leaves the Ohio Valley dry. Currently, the solution spread is
about 50/50 each way. Interaction between the mid latitude system
and Melissa are likely driving a large part of this uncertainty.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The only exception
is at KLUK where some river valley BR/FG will lead to IFR or lower
VSBY in the several hours around daybreak.
Mid/high clouds will overspread the area through the daytime, with
CIGs generally around 8-10kft by late day. Light NE flow goes more
easterly during the day, but remains around 5kts or less.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080>082-088.
Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ077>079.
KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059.
Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 1:22 AM EDT---------------
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