LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:36 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...723
FXUS63 KLMK 271036
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
636 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Light to moderate rain over southern Kentucky this morning, and
light rain expected to last through the evening. Rainfall totals
should be less than 0.50 inches across north central KY and
southern IN, with 0.50-1.25 inches expected across south central
KY.
* Widespread rain is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected at this time, and
locally higher amounts up to 2.5 inches.
* Below normal temperatures, especially during the day, are
expected over the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
The closed upper low is currently centered over the Mississippi
River and western Kentucky. This low will continue to push east into
the Tennessee Valley today. Better low-level moisture is being
ushered in from the southeast along a LLJ. Recent BNA sounding
confirms that PWATs have increased to 1.16 inches. A heavier band of
stratiform rain and embedded showers is moving north into southern
Kentucky, where ceilings are lowering and some light to moderate
rainfall is occurring. Have seen visibilities over northern
Tennessee drop to 3SM in heavier rain. Therefore, through the
morning and into the afternoon, expect ceilings to steadily
deteriorate and precip to push north. Our far northern counties may
only see very light rain, as drier air to the northeast will still
be difficult to overcome. Total rainfall for today looks to be 0.75-
1.25 over the southern half of the region and Trace-0.5 over the
northern half of the region. High temperatures will be in the mid-to-
upper 50s and about 8-10 degrees below normal.
Tonight, the upper closed low will begin to break down as ridging
over the Great Lakes and troughing over New England amplifies.
Precip will begin to shift east and coverage will steadily diminish
as the low weakens. Low and mid level moisture will remain over the
region, which will keep low ceilings through the overnight. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s and low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
Tuesday through Thursday Night...
Omega blocking over the northern CONUS will begin to break up as the
troughs amplify and pinch off the ridging over southern Canada. On
Tuesday, some vorticity will remain over the Ohio Valley from the
weakened upper low from Monday. This vorticity, coupled with trapped
low-level moisture may squeeze out a few hundredths of light rain
over the region. Though most of the day will be dry and overcast as
we will be between weather systems.
Tuesday night and Wednesday, the strengthening trough over the
Rockies and the trough over New England will extend into the Ohio
Valley, developing a closed upper low. From this, surface
cyclogenesis will bring a low pressure center into the lower Ohio
Valley. Rain chances will increase from west to east Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, becoming widespread on Wednesday. Moisture
from the previous system will be in place over the region and
southerly flow will continue to reinforce this moisture. PWATs are
forecasted to be around 1 inch. As the low pressure move across the
Ohio Valley, it will quickly occlude and precip will wrap around the
low pressure as the system exits the region on Thursday night. Total
QPF forecast looks to be 1-2 inches, with locally higher amounts up
to 2.5 inches possible.
Halloween into Next Weekend...
The upper low and associated surface low pressure will continue to
push off into the northeastern CONUS, allowing the lower Ohio Valley
to dry out and overcast skies to finally break up after a long week
without sunshine. Temperatures will continue to run cooler than
normal, with Friday evening trick-or-treating temperatures in the
low-to-mid 50s and some cooler spots quickly decoupling into the mid
40s.
Going into the weekend, troughing moving southeast into the Upper
Midwest will interact with the upper low over New England. There is
some uncertainty with possible phasing, though guidance still trends
with bringing a trough through the Midwest and Ohio Valley on
Sunday. This would bring another chance for precip to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
An upper low is moving across the lower Ohio Valley today, bringing
bands of stratiform rain and some embedded showers. A heavier band
of precip is working northeast and will mostly impact the southern
half of the region with lowered CIGs and VIS this morning. IFR CIGs
are expected within a few hours after sunrise. These CIGs and precip
will steadily work north, reaching the northern terminals this
evening and lasting through the overnight. Overnight, precip
coverage will steadily diminish.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:36 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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