ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 2:22 PM EDT934
FXUS61 KILN 241822
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
222 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will across the region for this weekend. Below
normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week.
Showers will be possible Sunday, with a continued possibility for
rain in the forecast through the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Northwesterly mid level flow with large area of surface high
pressure centered over the area this evening. This high builds
slowly east with the ridge axis positioned east of the area by 12Z
Saturday - allowing a light easterly low level flow to develop.
Although many locations recorded freezing temperatures this morning -
generally only a light freeze was observed and therefore the frost
freeze fall season continues.
Skies will start out mostly clear this evening with mainly high
level clouds spilling into the southwest overnight. Clear skies and
light winds will lead to cold temperatures and the threat for frost
again tonight. The setup for frost, with potential for freezing
temperatures is most favorable for parts of central Ohio and the
lower Scioto Vly into NE KY, due to clearer skies and lighter winds.
Mean NBM deterministic looks a little warm again tonight with many
locations showing this value at the top or even above the 75th
percentile. Have used a blend of NBM25 and NBM - which yields lows
from near 30 northeast to the mid and upper 30s southwest. Have
issued a freeze warning for all but the southwest - where a frost
advisory has been issued.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level flow backs more westerly with an increase in mid and high
level clouds ahead of Central Plains low during the day light hours
Saturday. After a chilly start temperatures top out from the mid 50s
northeast to 60 southwest.
Split flow pattern with Central Plains mid/upper low under a ridge
across the Upper MS Valley and Western Great Lakes. Weak isentropic
lift develops to our west with some of the model solutions advecting
light rain into our southern counties Saturday night. NBM pops appear
to be too high given lack of forcing and relatively dry low levels.
Have adjusted pops slower and only carried slight chance across the
far south. Any pcpn with be very light or even sprinkles. Lows
Saturday night to range from the mid/upper 30s northeast to the mid
40s southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Complex jet stream pattern over the CONUS Sunday with a southern
stream shortwave moving through Kentucky/Tennessee beneath a ridge
over the Great Lakes. Bookending these features are two troughs, one
over the Northeast US and another diving into the northern/central
Great Plains. The southern shortwave provides continued mentions for
rainfall on Sunday/Sunday night, although there remains some chance
these could drop out entirely (12Z GFS /12Z ECMWF are currently
farther south of previous solutions). There has been a notable shift
southward from the last NBM.
The southern system merges with the larger trough over the Northeast
US early next week. At the same time, the trough diving into the
central Plains closes off over the lower Ohio Valley. The surface
low pressure associated with this system may provide additional
rainfall chances as it slowly propagates eastward. As noted in
previous forecast discussions, the interaction between the eastern
trough, the closed low, and tropical activity moving out of the
Caribbean, all contribute to a low confidence forecast with regards
to the chances for rainfall.
Precipitation forecasts may be low confidence, but some temperature
expectations can be made with higher confidence. The temperature
pattern over the next week looks to be near or even slightly below
normal to wrap up the month. Cloud cover and rainfall would limit
high temperature forecasts even more, but even if the forecast dries
out, don't expect too much warming in the day-to-day forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large area of surface high pressure centered over the area this
evening to build slowly east of the area overnight.
Cloud coverage varies from broken VFR cumulus across the northeast
to few to scattered across the southwest. These clouds will give way
to clearing this evening. After mostly clear conditions this evening
high level clouds spill into the southwest overnight. River valley
fog will be possible at KLUK prior to the increase in clouds. At this
time have limited restriction to MVFR.
Any fog that develops will improve with increase in clouds and
sunrise Saturday morning. High and mid level clouds increase during
the day with VFR conditions thru Saturday afternoon.
Westerly winds around 6-8kts this afternoon, gradually becoming
northerly past 00z as they subside. Light winds become easterly by
daybreak Saturday with east winds at less than 10 kts thru the
afternoon.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080>082-088.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
OHZ077>079.
KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
INZ050-058-059.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for
INZ066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 2:22 PM EDT---------------
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