IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:05 PM EDT956
FXUS63 KIND 251905
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
305 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic chances for rain Sunday through the middle of next week,
greatest threat in South Central Indiana
- Temperatures to remain slightly below normal into next week
- Mostly dry and cool conditions expected for Halloween
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Central Indiana remains caught between several upper air features
during the short term. First, the shortwave trough over the southern
plains region will remain well south as it moves slowly east into
the lower MS valley. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge centered over
the northern plains will build into the Great Lakes region and a
northern stream shortwave over the Great Lakes will rotate southeast
into the longwave trough along the eastern seaboard.
The combination of these synoptic scale features will lead to a
drying out of the mid-levels from today until Sunday as the mid
level deformation zone settles south. As a result, the light showers
over southern portions of the forecast area today will be shunted
further south to mainly the Ohio Valley region for tonight into
Sunday, with skies gradually clearing over northern and central
portions of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures
on Sunday will be close to normal in the lower-mid 60s area wide. A
fairly dry and well mixed boundary layer coupled with a fairly
strong pressure gradient between the surface high pressure over SE
Ontario and low pressure over the lower MS valley will lead to gusty
east winds 15-20 mph during the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
The shortwave trough over the lower MS valley will move into the SE
CONUS on Monday. The closer proximity of this shortwave and the
expected slight nudge northward, latitudingly speaking, owing to its
phasing with the eastern seaboard longwave, should lead to
increasing cloud cover and chances of light precip developing over
southern portions of the forecast area on Sunday night lasting into
Monday. An associated remnant inverted trough from the surface up to
850mb is expected to move from SW-NE and then stall across the
forecast area Monday night into Tuesday and will support the
chance for very light showers/drizzle across central Indiana
during this period.
Attention then turns to the very strong storm system which having
moved through the Rockies Monday will emerge over the MS
valley/upper Midwest on Tuesday. The medium range models continue to
have a good handle and agreement on this systems development and
rapid intensification, likely owing to the classic coupling of
physical parameters. Channeled DCVA will induce strengthening
pressure falls and a deepening surface low Tuesday over the Mid MS
Valley. Stronger CAA on the back side of this developing system
coupled with fairly strong trop fold will likely lead to a more
rapid development of the surface low pressure per the Euro model
guidance. As a result, am more bullish moderate winds (gusts 30
mph+) and moderate rainfall intensities for central Indiana Tuesday
night into Wednesday. However, constraints to making huge changes to
Day 3-4 forecasts limits these changes being made to the official
grids. The NBM only going 60ish pops and 20 mph gusts late Tuesday
into early Wednesday, more in likely with the slightly weaker/faster
GFS solution on the evolution of the surface-mid level lows.
This system will gradually move east towards the east coast Thursday
into Friday with all medium range guidance suggesting a strong and
spooky nor'easter for Halloween. The good news for trick or treaters
in central Indiana is the forecast area should be far enough removed
from this storm, such that rain chances are low enough to not be
included in the forecast. However below normal temperatures will be
in place.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
Impacts:
- None, VFR conditions through the period.
Discussion:
Central Indiana TAF sites remain stuck between clearer skies and
surface high pressure to the NE and a large area of precipitation to
the SW associated with a storm system over the southern plains.
Cloud cover associated with the southern plains system will continue
through tonight with ceilings averaging between 070-100. A few
sprinkles can't be ruled out at KBMG this afternoon, but
decreasing coverage of the elevated showers precludes the
inclusion of VCSH. Some scattering out of these mid level clouds
is expected tomorrow as some drier air works its way southward
from the Great Lakes region. Winds will continue to generally be
out of the east also due to proximity of the surface high pressure
to the NE and the surface low pressure to the SW with speeds from
5-12 kts, strongest tomorrow afternoon where gusts 15-18 kts are
possible.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Crosbie
AVIATION...Crosbie
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 3:05 PM EDT---------------
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