JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:09 PM EDT911
FXUS63 KJKL 251809 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
209 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Milder and mainly dry conditions through midday Sunday.
- The next meaningful chances for rain arrive Sunday evening into
Sunday night and linger into the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation trends and
this led to no significant changes at this point. The main chance
was opting to add in some sprinkles falling from the mid level
deck this afternoon to early evening based on radar and other
recent trends. Any measurable precipitation should hold off until
tonight at the earliest and more likely 12 to 18 hours later than
that.
UPDATE Issued at 952 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
Temperatures had rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s by 930 AM EDT,
ending the frost threat in all areas. Thus, the frost advisory
has cancelled early at that point. Hourly temperatures were
freshened up based on recent trends. A milder day than the past
few days is in store despite more cloud cover as return flow
begins to increase. The trend of more clouds will continue into
tonight and should keep all locations from dropping below the 40
degree mark.
UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving off to the northeast
of Kentucky. This provided a clear start to the night but high and
mid level clouds have drifting in late. The early clearing along
with light winds and dry air has led to another decent ridge to
valley temperature difference. As such, readings currently range
from the lower 40s on the hills to near 30 degrees in the
sheltered spots. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to
mid 30s. Area of frost is expected for most of the valleys and
some sub freezing temperatures for a brief time in the coldest
spots - addressed in the ongoing Frost Advisory for locations
generally east of I-75. In addition to limiting the cooling this
night, the clouds are also keeping the valley fog at bay per
satellite and obs.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict a compact trough drifting east through
the Southern Plains at 5h. Downstream, this means near zonal mid
level flow through Kentucky with some weak energy passing overhead
today and into tonight. By 12Z Sunday some energy will be pushing
south toward eastern Kentucky from the departed northeast trough.
This activity aloft will combine with impulses from the
approaching western trough into Sunday evening. The very small
spread among the models still supports using the NBM as the
starting point of the forecast grids with minimal adjustments
needed - mainly just terrain driven enhancements to the hourly
temperatures this morning and a touch tonight. Did also include
some small PoPs from the CAMs guidance for tonight and Sunday.
Sensible weather features a cold and frosty start to the day, for
many places in eastern Kentucky, and a fair amount of clouds
through the day preventing temperatures from achieving their
potential. Even so, afternoon readings will end up warmer than
those of Friday by a category or two. These clouds - and a small
chance of showers through the night will keep temperatures milder
than the past several night with most places ending up no lower
than 40 degrees. Look for similar temperatures through the day on
Sunday - near normal - along with a continued small chance of a
light shower or two owing to a weak sfc trough over the area.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures this morning
and a bit tonight. the NBM PoPs were enhanced with some of the
latest CAMS guidance tonight and Sunday.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to enhance
the terrain based differences of a ridge to valley split to the
temperatures late in the period. The next decent shot of showers
and measureable rainfall will be through the first part of the
new week as a sfc low develops southeast of Kentucky.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The long-term period opens Sunday with quasi-zonal flow over
eastern Kentucky. Just upstream, a high-amplitude split flow
features a weak closed low over the southern Plains under a ridge
extending from the Upper Midwest to northern Canada. To our
northeast, a trough lingers from Labrador down across the St.
Lawrence Valley. Far upstream to our northwest, a potent trough is
coming ashore over the Pacific Northwest coast. At the surface,
an ~1033 mb high is centered over the Ontario/Quebec border,
though its associated ridging extends southward into the
Appalachians and upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a nearly filled surface
low will be situated under the aforementioned upper low, with a
weak triple-point low skirting the Central Gulf Coast.
The guidance is in relatively good synoptic agreement through
Monday morning. The split flow pattern shifts east with the weak
closed low gradually filling over our region on Monday. A surge of
WAA and a modest uptick in PWATs will occur as the remnant upper
low fills, leading to widespread measurable rainfall later Sunday
into Monday. Guidance diverges substantially thereafter; while the
overall pattern is apparent, specifics regarding track, depth,
and local impacts remain uncertain. In general, the Pacific trough
will dive southeast and carve a deep trough through the Plains
before closing off somewhere over the Eastern CONUS. Meanwhile,
the upper trough over the St. Lawrence Valley closes off and
retrogrades southwest, potentially interacting with the
aforementioned closed low. This complex system eventually shifts
east, bringing a cold front through the region and potentially the
first snowflakes of the season to the highest mountains.
Generally below-normal temperatures are expected to persist
through the long-term period. Unsettled weather will return
Sunday, beginning with a few sprinkles before transitioning to
light rain Sunday night into Monday. A lull in precipitation is
possible Monday night into Tuesday before more widespread
measurable rainfall returns for mid-week, followed by drier
conditions. Highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the low to
mid-60s, with highs mainly in the 50s for the remainder of the
period. Overnight lows will also cool, beginning in the 40s Sunday
night before falling into the 30s by late week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR should prevail through the TAF period as high pressure departs
and the atmosphere gradually moistens up, alot in the mid and
upper levels first. Bands of mid and upper level clouds will move
across the region as an upper low and additional disturbances
approach. Ceilings between 8 and 12kft agl have been observed
across the region recently and should remain generally in that
range at times through the period. Some scattered clouds down to
about 5 to 6kft are also possible in bands of sprinkles or
showers. Winds will be light averaging between northeast and
east.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 2:09 PM EDT---------------
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