PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 2:08 AM CDT619
FXUS63 KPAH 240708
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
208 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Frosty start to our Friday, then increasing clouds but
remaining primarily dry through Saturday afternoon.
- Rain chances are increasingly likely Saturday night into
Sunday. The unsettled pattern looks to continue into early
and possibly mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025
A 1024mb surface high is positioned over central Kentucky early this
morning. Our area is on the western periphery of this, and some high
clouds are starting to stream in from a system to our west.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s in most
locations, and likely will fall into the mid 30s for many east of
the Mississippi River. This will result in fairly widespread frost
to start our Friday. A few locations may flirt with the freezing
mark as well.
An upper low over the Four Corners region will slowly drift eastward
becoming centered over the Southern Plains on Saturday and
eventually lifting across the mid-Mississippi Valley Sunday into
Monday. Waves of energy ahead of this feature are resulting in
precipitation developing across KS/OK and into far western MO
currently. With the influence of the Surface High that remains over
the Ohio Valley, feel like the dry air will win out today and most
of tomorrow. This likely keeps our area primarily precip-free until
after sunset Saturday. As the upper system spins closer to us, we
should see the column finally saturate down with rain spreading in
Saturday night and through the day on Sunday. A lot of guidance
keeps highs in the 50s on Sunday with the overcast and rain around,
so our current forecast with low 60s may be overdone.
Still a decent amount of uncertainty early next week, but models
generally show some sort of troughiness keeping us unsettled with
lingering rain chances Monday. As we move into Tuesday and
Wednesday, northern stream energy seems likely to dive southeast
into the Central CONUS and carve out a deeper trough across the Ohio
Valley. Not sure the moisture feed will be great, so QPF amounts may
remain on the lighter end, but still a decent chance to remain
unsettled during this period. Late week looks drier, including for
Halloween trick-or-treaters, so let's hope that holds up!
Temperatures will average below normal, and our current forecast may
be too warm, especially Sunday and perhaps Monday. After highs in
the 60s the next two days, many days may remain in the 50s starting
on Sunday and continuing through much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025
The surface high pressure ridge that extends across the area
will shift ever so slightly to the east this package...as
developing low pressure takes shape and gradually gears up for
an eventual weekend approach from the west. Gridded time/height
cross sections show a bone dry column until the planning phase
hours of the forecast, during which top-down saturation begins
to occur/seen manifested in the H7-H5 layer. We've brought in
some initial FEW-SCT cirrus bases, with CIGS potential mid level
bases in the 10-15K range by the end of the effective valid
time of the forecast. Light northerly component winds at
issuance gradually veer to easterly component with time over the
course of this forecast package.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086-087-
100-110>112-114.
IN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...Previous Fcter
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 2:08 AM CDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
