IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 12:56 AM EDT061
FXUS63 KIND 240456
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1256 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freeze Warning tonight and early Friday morning
- Periodic chances for rain Sunday through the middle of next
week
- Near to below normal temperatures in the 40s and 50s next week
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
No changes needed to the forecast this evening. Continue to expect a
cold night with temps dipping into the low 30s in urban areas and
into the upper 20s in rural areas. Widespread frost and freeze
conditions expected with a Freeze Warning remaining in effect.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
A broad upper level trough continues to maintain itself over the
eastern Canadian Provinces, ushering cold NW flow into the Ohio
Valley. This cold air advection is addition in low level height
rises today, resulting in a localized area of high pressure. Still,
there is enough mid level moisture on the periphery of the upper
trough for scattered diurnal cu across NE portions of the area, with
clear skies elsewhere. This push of cooler air is keeping high
temperatures this afternoon well bellow normal, with expected highs
in the mid 50s.
Tonight, the combination of much cooler air and building surface
high pressure will provide us with the coldest night since April.
These conditions will allow for efficient diurnal cooling with lows
expected to drop well into the 20s near river valleys and near 30
elsewhere. For this reason, a Freeze Warning has been issued for all
of central Indiana starting at 2AM, and continuing until 9AM
tomorrow morning
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
The large high pressure will continue to dominate the weather
pattern Friday and Saturday with dry conditions expected beneath
broad subsidence. The polar airmass will likely remain through this
period, but greater overnight winds should allow for overnight
temperatures to rebound slowly each day with lows in the mid 30s
Friday night and low 40s Saturday night.
With the strong high well establish across the eastern portion of
North America this weekend, this should allow for anomalous
streamwise vorticity across the Canadian Rockies, inducing height
falls and a synoptic scale trough to form by early next week.
Initially, this should lead to a weak shortwave across the
southern Plains pushing eastward Sunday through Monday, and then a
larger low pressure system to dive to the SE within the stronger
supergeostrophic jet streak Tuesday and Wednesday.
Ensemble members are still widely varied on the placement of both
waves, but generally agree on the second low quickly diving south,
and becoming detached from the Polar Jet next week. As is becomes
detached, the steering flow wanes keeping this close low near the
Ohio Valley into next weekend. Both systems should provide periods
of rainfall next week, but will greatly depend on how the each low
phases and tracks through the central US. With the first low likely
to pass to the south and the closed low originating from the
Canadian Rockies, near to below normal temperatures should remain
within the long term.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
Impacts:
- None
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Some diurnal cumulus will pop up today, and cirrus will increase
from the west. Light winds early will increase some during the day,
but speeds should be 10kt or less.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 12:56 AM EDT---------------
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