PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 6:02 AM CDT433
FXUS63 KPAH 231102
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
602 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of frost are possible across northern portions of the
region this morning. Conditions are more supportive of
widespread frost across the northern and eastern parts of the
region Friday morning.
- Primarily dry conditions are expected through Saturday. Rain
chances increase Saturday night through Sunday with additional
chances early to mid next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025
A broad upper level trough stretching from the Ohio Valley to the
Northeast U.S. will gradually give way to weak riding Friday into
Saturday ahead of an shortwave that will slide east from the Desert
Southwest into the Southern Plains. This system will eventually push
east across the lower or middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday, but
most likely in a weakening state. At the surface, high pressure will
be overhead today and then become centered more to our north and
east tonight into Friday.
A Frost Advisory remains in effect for area primarily along and
north of I-64 this morning. It continues to look like a more
widespread frost will occur across the northern and eastern counties
of our cwa tonight into Friday morning with lows falling into the
mid 30s (a few cold spots could get close to freezing). Meanwhile,
further southwest across southeast MO, far southwest IL, and the
Jackson Purchase of west KY will likely remain warm enough due to a
light easterly wind developing and the possibility of some clouds
sneaking in from the system to our west.
The aforementioned shortwave ejecting out of the southwest U.S. will
attempt to spread an initial batch of rain into the Ozark Foothills
on Friday, but will be working against dry air from the surface
high. Same scenario on Saturday it appears, which likely means most
of our area remains dry both these days. As the wave pushes closer
to our region, rain should finally win out over the dry air Saturday
night into Sunday. Still not sure how much QPF is realized, but
0.25" to 0.50" seems reasonable for now (although likely less in the
north).
A larger scale trough across the Northwest U.S. will exist Sunday
into early week. Guidance seems to suggest a lobe of energy will
eject into the Central CONUS early in the week and carve out a
deeper trough across the eastern U.S. by mid to late week. This
would likely lead to a period of showers and possibly thunderstorms
for our region, with the period from Monday night through Tuesday
night favored at the moment. There remains a lot of model
variability regarding degree of instability (if any).
Temperatures will average somewhat below normal through the next
week. Highs will primarily be in the 60s most days with lows in the
40s (except for tonight). Most guidance suggests a cooler period mid
to late next week when highs are likely to remain in the 50s and
lows may return to the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025
Surface high pressure will lead to primarily SKC conditions.
Light winds this morning will become NNW around 6-8 kts this
afternoon before becoming calm tonight. Time heights show some
increase in high clouds possible overnight, especially around
KCGI/KPAH.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078-082-
083.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-
081>083-085>087-089>091-094.
MO...None.
IN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for
INZ081-082-085>088.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM CDT /2 AM EDT/ to 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/
Friday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for KYZ007-010>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 6:02 AM CDT---------------
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