PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 7:51 AM EDT490
FXUS61 KPBZ 231151
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
751 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Lake-enhanced showers and below-average temperatures will
persist through Friday under a lingering Great Lakes trough.
Dry conditions return this weekend under high pressure.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers persist today, accompanied by below- average
temperature
---------------------------------------------------------------
A broad low-pressure system is centered north of central New
York this morning. Northwest flow over the Great Lakes continues
to support lake-enhanced showers and isolated thunderstorms.
With minimal changes expected in directional wind pattern aloft,
precipitation north of Pittsburgh will likely persist into the
late evening, while areas south may experience sprinkles or
drizzle from gravity waves.
Cloud cover and precipitation will keep high temperatures below
average again today.
Lightning potential remains focused north of I-80, where
shallow instability is greatest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Frost Advisory for portions of eastern Ohio Friday morning
- Drier conditions return early Saturday
- Frost/freeze potential Saturday morning
----------------------------------------------------------------
With clearing skies and light surface winds favoring radiational
cooling early Friday, frost potential increases across parts of
eastern Ohio. A Frost Advisory is now in effect for Muskingum,
Guernsey, Noble, and Monroe county from 2am to 9am Friday. For
areas north of I-70, clouds and lake-enhanced precipitation will
likely linger and temperatures will likely remain a few degrees
warmer.
Lake-enhanced showers will likely persist into late Friday
evening, supported by shallow instability and weak cold
advection under northwest flow. Rainfall totals should range
from a trace to a quarter inch, with locally higher amounts
north of I-80.
As ridging builds over the Great Lakes, diminishing northwest
flow aloft will reduce the potential for lake-induced showers
early Saturday morning. With clouds expected to clear, the
potential for frost or freeze conditions returns and headlines
may need to issued once again.
Dry and quiet conditions are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening. However, highs will remain about 5 degrees below
average as lingering cold air keeps 850mb temperatures around
-1 to -2 degrees Celsius.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and seasonable temperatures Saturday night into Sunday
- Large degree of variability in weather pattern for mid to late
next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence remains high that dry and quiet conditions will
continue Saturday into Sunday as high pressure builds to our
west. If a hard freeze has not occurred beforehand, additional
frost/freeze headlines may be needed with temperatures falling
into the mid to low-30s early Sunday morning.
Long-range models strongly favor a large-scale ridge over the
Great Lake Lakes Monday into Tuesday, with over half of
ensembles supporting this pattern. The likelihood of rain
Tuesday into Wednesday depends heavily on the path and strength
of a low-pressure system developing over the Great Plains this
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ongoing MVFR ceilings north of I-70 see slow improvement through
this morning, with at least some period of VFR anticipated at
most terminals by late this afternoon/evening. Currently,
shower activity is focused north of I-80 where influence from
Lake Erie is most prominent in prevailing west-southwesterly
flow. Scattered shower activity develops this afternoon
elsewhere across the area as heating/mixing help to destabilize
the boundary layer. Heaviest and most persistent shower activity
remains north of I-80 but can't rule out a passing instance of
rain and slight reductions in visibilities/ceilings at other
terminals. Introduced PROB30s at most terminals to reflect this
potential (aside from ZZV/MGW where probabilities remain too
low to warrant mention).
West-southwest winds will be breezy again this morning and
afternoon (gusts in the 20kt to 30kt range) before diminishing
this evening, becoming light overnight into Friday. Lingering
moisture may allow cigs to fall back to MVFR overnight, with the
greatest probabilities for that happening at FKL/DUJ. Areas
farther south remain more uncertain at this time.
.OUTLOOK...
A persistent upper trough will allow persistent MVFR/VFR cigs
and occasional shower chances through Friday. Areawide VFR
returns over the weekend as the trough axis shifts east and weak
ridging builds overhead. Another system could return rain and
restriction chances from the south early next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ057-058-068-
069.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 7:51 AM EDT---------------
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