LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 6:26 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...241
FXUS64 KLIX 202326 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
626 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
...NEW AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
- Next frontal passage Tuesday afternoon and evening, but rain
amounts likely less than one quarter inch.
- Minimum humidity values will be near critical values Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Upper ridging over the Great Lakes with troughs over New England and
the northern Rockies. Primarily zonal mid level flow across the
northern Gulf Coast this morning. At the surface, high pressure
centered near Atlanta. A surface low over western Minnesota with a
frontal boundary southwestward to low pressure in eastern Colorado.
Sunny skies across the area at midday with temperatures mainly in
the 70s. Dew points ranged from the mid 40s north to upper 50s
south.
The northern Rockies trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes
by Tuesday evening and cut off over Lake Superior. The surface low
over Minnesota will move over Lake Superior and deepen as the upper
and surface lows become stacked. The associated frontal boundary
will be moving into our area by sunset Tuesday, but drier air will
lag somewhat and not arrive until around sunrise Wednesday. Winds
are already turning onshore and dew points will be increasing
this afternoon and tonight, and should be well into the 60s on
Tuesday. Moisture recovery tomorrow looks to be sufficient enough
to support scattered SHRA/TSRA during the late afternoon hours
across at least northwest portions of the area.
Temperatures could fall several degrees this evening and then
flatten out for the second half of the night. Likely to be abundant
sunshine for the first half of the day tomorrow, enough for
temperatures to get into the lower and middle 80s. Doesn't look
like cooler air will arrive until close to sunrise. Forecast lows
Wednesday morning are NBM based, which is a compromise.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Front will move through the area overnight Tuesday night, but
drier air probably will not arrive into the area until Wednesday
morning. Dew points could fall into the lower 40s across northern
portions of the area Wednesday afternoon with relative humidities
falling below 30 percent. This could present fire danger issues if
winds are a little stronger than expected. RH values will remain
low on Thursday afternoon before high pressure gets far enough
east to allow moisture to recover.
Southern stream shortwave will bring another weather system across
the area this weekend. Medium range models still in disagreement on
timing and strength of system, so will accept NBM numbers with no
obvious target of opportunity.
While high temperatures will be near to above normal for most of the
period, Thursday morning will see temperatures below normal with
cool and dry air in place. The increase in moisture ahead of the
weekend system will bring above normal low temperatures to the area
for Saturday morning through the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
VFR through the evening. VIS reductions are possible for MCB, BTR,
HDC, HUM, and perhaps even ASD around sunrise Tuesday. Looking at
IFR conditions at times possible. This should mix out an hour or
two after sunrise with VFR conditions anticipated from that point
on. Added PROBs for -SHRA for BTR with the frontal passage, but
this is very isolated activity. Winds behind the front will begin
to transition. For this cycle, those impacts will only be the
north and western terminals. MSY will experience the transition in
the 24-30 hour timeframe. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Winds and seas will briefly relax as high pressure moves across the
waters through Tuesday afternoon. Another cold front will move
across the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with winds
and seas increasing behind the front on Wednesday. Cautionary
headlines are likely at times from Wednesday into the weekend,
especially over the open coastal waters.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 79 57 82 52 / 0 0 20 10
BTR 82 60 86 57 / 0 0 20 10
ASD 79 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 82 65 87 65 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 77 60 82 60 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 78 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 6:26 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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