LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:15 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...637
FXUS63 KLMK 230515
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
115 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy westerly winds will continue to gust to 20-30 mph through
early evening.
* Cool and dry weather is expected through Saturday.
* Frost Advisory in effect mainly for rural and sheltered areas in
southern Indiana and much of central Kentucky early Thursday
morning.
* Freeze Watch has been issued for southern Indiana and most of
central Kentucky for early Friday morning. Widespread frost is
more likely Friday morning, with lows ranging from the upper 20s
to mid 30s.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 831 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Evening satellite data shows mostly clear skies across the region
this evening. We're starting to see atmospheric decoupling across
the area with some of valley locations already dropping into the
lower 40s. KY Mesonet station down in Burkesville (Cumberland Co)
is already down to 38!
Overall forecast remains on track for the overnight period with the
first fairly widespread frost expected across the area. Overnight
lows in the valleys and deeply protected areas will likely drop down
into the lower-middle 30s in advisory area. Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected in the Bowling Green/Karst region of south-
central KY. Current headline looks good and no changes are
expected. A more suitable radiational cooling setup looks likely
for Thursday night and Friday morning with temps dropping as low as
the upper 20s in our deeper valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Conditions are cool, breezy, and sunny this afternoon. Deep low
pressure is spinning east of Lake Huron this afternoon, with sfc
high pressure analyzed over AR/LA. Breezy westerly winds are being
funneled between these features, with gusts of 20-30 mph in central
KY and southern IN. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s and
lower 60s, with some spots in the mid 60s in southern KY.
Low pressure will gradually pull off to the northeast across Quebec
in the short term, with upper troughing lingering over the Northeast
and eastern Great Lakes. Sfc ridging extending from the Plains to
the Deep South will slowly slide eastward over the region tonight
into Friday. The near sfc layer will have a much easier time
decoupling tonight, and given the cool dry airmass in place,
temperatures will drop further. Expect lows Thursday morning in the
mid 30s to around 40. Rural areas and sheltered locations in
southern IN and most of central KY could see areas of frost Thursday
morning. There is some concern for frost in our typically cooler
areas in the southern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions, so the
Frost Advisory was expanded south a bit for this potential.
Thursday looks sunny with 5-10 mph winds out of the northwest. After
the chilly start, temperatures are forecast to rebound into the low
to mid 60s in the afternoon.
Sfc high pressure builds directly over the region Thursday night and
Friday morning, providing excellent radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures are expected to plummet below most of the model
guidance, and we have gone below the NBM. Temperatures are likely to
drop into the low to mid 30s early Friday morning, but could see
some of our coolest rural/valley spots dipping into the upper 20s to
around 30. This is likely to be the first freeze of the season in
some areas, so we have decided to issue a Freeze Watch for southern
IN and most of central KY. The freeze potential is a bit lower
confidence in south-central KY, so not all of those counties were
included. But decided to go fairly aggressive with low temperatures
and the Watch area due to the ideal meteorological setup and
potential for widespread frost.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 353 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025
Friday - Saturday Night...
Sfc high pressure and low-amplitude ridging aloft lingers over the
region on Friday before sliding off to the east this weekend. Friday
will remain dry and cool, with only a modest increase in upper sky
cover. It'll be a frosty morning, with afternoon temps rebounding
into the low to mid 60s.
Friday night through Saturday night, an upper low and weak sfc
reflection are forecast to rotate east across Texas. Meanwhile,
upper level troughing is forecast to drop southeast across the Upper
Midwest. Weak mid-level fgen and moisture advection could yield some
light rain by Saturday night, but this is low confidence. Mainly dry
conditions are likely through Saturday. Look for a partly cloudy
Saturday, with highs ranging through the 60s.
Sunday - Tuesday...
Rain chances increase by late in the weekend and early next week.
Upper level shortwave troughing and deeper moisture are more likely
to move across the Lower OH Valley and Southeast US during this time
frame. This should yield a period of unsettled weather with light to
moderate rain showers at times. Highs look to remain in the 60s
through early next week, with warmer overnight temps and smaller
diurnal temperature ranges due to the increase in moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Winds should remain light out of the west to west-southwest tonight.
Winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 6-10kts later this
morning into the afternoon with a few mid and upper clouds at times
through tonight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-064>067-077-078-081-
082.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-077-078-081-082.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:15 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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