JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 4:31 PM EDT948
FXUS63 KJKL 212031
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
431 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another increase in gusts is expected during the day on
Wednesday as a surface trough ushers in colder and drier air.
- Frost is possible in valleys on Wednesday and Thursday nights,
with greater coverage on Thursday night. A few of the typical
cold spots could experience a freeze on Thursday night.
- Below normal temperatures are forecast to prevail through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
Late this afternoon an upper level low was moving across the
western Great Lakes with the axis of the 500 mb trough extending
into the Lower OH Valley to Southeast. A shortwave moving around
this upper low was nearing the Lower OH Valley. Further west, an
upper level ridge extended from Mexico into the Pacific Northwest
to BC. A shortwave trough was upstream of the upper level low
extending across Saskatchewan and moving around the upper level
ridging and into the troughing in the Great Lakes to eastern
Conus. At the surface, the cold front that crossed the region
through midday has move east of eastern KY with a sfc trough
preceding the initial upstream shortwave that is nearing the Lower
OH Valley. Further west, a sfc ridge extended through the Plains.
Winds have gusted near and behind the front into the 20 to 30 mph
range with cumulus having also developed across the area.
Tonight and Wednesday, the first upstream shortwave rotating
around the upper level low and through the OH Valley during the
evening into the early part of the overnight before a surface high
pressure ridge noses into the TN Valley and eastern KY late. The
next upstream impulse rotating into the trough and around the
upper level low will arrive from the west by late Wednesday
morning and cross the region through the afternoon. A sfc
trough/cold front will trek across the region in advance of this
impulse and usher in a colder and drier airmass. Surface high
pressure should nose into the region to end the period.
Cumulus clouds should generally decrease in coverage toward
sunset this evening, but a band of mid level clouds should work
across the region this evening with the initial shortwave. Skies
should clear late tonight with some decrease in winds. A few of
the more sheltered locations in the south and west could
experience some patchy frost. Otherwise, within a couple of hours
after the sun comes up on Wednesday, winds and gusts should once
again increase and gusts into the 20 to 30 mph should again occur
as the next impulse and sfc trough crosses. Highs will be below
normal for Wednesday. Winds should again eventually slacken on
Wednesday night and some of the deeper valleys could experience
the first frost of the season. Greater coverage of frost is
forecast early in the long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
The long term discussion will be issued shortly.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2025
A cold front has move southeast of the TAF sites and is nearing
the VA border at this time. VFR was reported across the region at
issuance time with clouds both nearer to the boundary and cumulus
that has developed with the heating of the day near and west of
the escarpment. Further development of shallow cumulus in the 4 to
5kft range should occur over the first few hours of the period. A
band of mid level clouds is progged to cross the area a few hours
either side of 00Z and then cumulus may begin to develop near the
end of the period. West to southwest winds with gusts into the 15
to 20KT range were occurring at issuance and could gusts upwards
of 25KT in some cases, but should begin to slacken toward 00Z. A
secondary sfc trough will approach to end the period and this
combined with daytime heating should result in another increase in
winds and gusts starting by 14Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 4:31 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
