PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:59 AM CDT077
FXUS63 KPAH 200659
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
159 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions with near normal temperatures are forecast
today through Thursday.
- Winds from the south will become breezy this afternoon, with
gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected. Locally higher gusts are
possible in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
- Rain chances (40-60%) and slightly cooler temperatures are
forecast Friday and Saturday, followed a 20-40% chance of
showers on Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Despite a generally quiet forecast today through Thursday with
seasonable temperatures, the overall synoptic pattern will
actually be quite blocky. A series of shortwave trough/ridges
will propagate across the northern tier of the CONUS through the
first half of the week. The forecast area will be south of these
features under a generally zonal sub-tropical flow regime,
resulting in dry conditions and temperate temperatures for late
October.
However, some periods of breezy conditions are possible,
especially today. Gradient wind gusts of 25-35 mph are forecast
this afternoon, with higher gusts to 40 mph not out of the
question in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Winds
will shift to the W-NW Tuesday and Wednesday in response to a
trough/surface low pushing south into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes, with daily afternoon peak wind gusts of 20-30 and 20-25
mph forecast, respectively.
Rain chances return to the forecast beginning Friday as an H5
trough and surface low develop in the sub-tropical jet flow,
passing through the region Friday into Saturday. PoPs during
this period have increased, with 40-60% now forecast.
High temperatures will cool slightly thanks to clouds and
precipitation, about five degrees below normal. Sunday will see
rain chances diminishing to about 20-40% along with a rebound
back to near normal temperature levels.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with clear skies
and no vsby restrictions. Calm to light west to southwest winds
overnight will become south at 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts
after 13z, increasing to 12-18kts with gusts of 20-28kts by
18z. After 00z, winds will decrease to 10-15kts with some gusts
to around 20kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:59 AM CDT---------------
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