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638 FXUS64 KLIX 140438AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Dry weather will continue through the end of the workweek - Higher rain chances for the weekend in association with a weak cold frontal passage - A return to drier weather early next week&&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025A broad area of high pressure will continue to be the dominantfeature impacting our weather through Thursday night. This highwill remain centered directly over the region on Tuesday andWednesday. Low humidity, a large diurnal range in temperatures,and light winds will continue across the region. Strongradiational cooling will allow lows to fall into the low to mid50s this morning in the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages bothtonight and tomorrow night. Away from the drainages, lows willeasily fall into the mid to upper 50s over inland areas and thelower 60s south of the lakes and along the coast of Louisiana bothtonight and tomorrow night. Highs will climb a good 30 degreesfrom the overnight lows as readings rise into the mid 80s eachday. On Thursday, the high will begin to shift to the east, andwinds will turn more east-southeasterly. A gradual increase inmoisture advection will allow for a smaller diurnal range asdewpoints increase. However, clear skies and lighter winds willstill allow for strong radiational cooling to occur. Overnightlows over inland areas will easily fall into the upper 50s andlower 60s. Conditions look favorable for some patchy fog formationover inland areas as temperatures fall below the criticalcrossover temperature, and fog is now included in the forecast forboth late Wednesday and late Thursday nights. Highs will alsocontinue to warm as the onshore flow advects in warmer Gulf airwith readings easily rising into the mid to upper 80s Thursdayafternoon. &&.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday night)Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025The medium range model guidance has come into much betteragreement this evening on the timing and orientation of adeepening northern stream trough axis that will slide through theGulf South over the weekend. As a result, forecast confidence hasincreased greatly as compared to yesterday that a cold front willslide through the area Saturday night into Sunday. In advanceof this front, continued onshore flow and increasing moistureadvection on Friday and Saturday will lead to more favorableconditions for convective development. Friday will continue to seelingering mid-level dryness inhibit convective development as astrong mid-level temperature inversion remains in place. Thismid-level inversion will keep the scattered cumulus field thatforms as temperatures climb into the upper 80s suppressed. Deeperupdrafts are not expected to develop. However, on Saturday, moisture will turn sufficiently deep to erode the mid-level inversion. Additionally, a broad region of increasing omega associated with a region of positive vorticity advection moving into the area will also provide the forcing aloftto sustain some deeper and longer lasting updraft development by Saturday afternoon. As temperatures climb into the mid to upper80s, the convective temperature will be achieved and scatteredshowers and thunderstorms will fire up. Fortunately, the windfield will remain fairly weak and severe storms are notanticipated. At most, a few stronger storms with some gusty windsof 30 to 40 mph and heavy downpours will take place on Saturday.The rain threat is reflected by PoP values of 30 to 40 percentSaturday afternoon. The front will slide through the area Saturday night into Sundaywith continued scattered showers and storms, but the overallintensity of the storms will be weaker due to the loss of daytimeheating and slightly less favorable upper level support. In fact,the risk of thunderstorms should be well offshore by Sundaymorning as the front pushes toward the coast. As drier air andincreasing northwesterly flow builds in behind the front, rainchances will quickly decrease Sunday afternoon and evening andskies will clear. Highs will be closer to average in the low tomid 80s on Sunday as weak cold air advection takes hold. Thesesame conditions are expected on Monday as high pressure settlesdirectly over the area and the heart of the 925mb thermal troughaxis also moves in. Lows will easily fall into the upper and lower60s away from the coast and the mid 60s closer to the coast bothSunday and Monday nights. &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025VFR conditions will continue at all of the terminals as a broadridge of high pressure stays in place over the region. &&.MARINE...Issued at 1114 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast on Thursday and Friday. Winds will remain more variable and below 10 knots and seas will remain below 2 feet through Wednesday, but a winds will turn more east-southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots on Thursday and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas will also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters over the weekend, and this will further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots on Saturday. Seas will respond and increase to 4 to 6 feet in the open Gulf waters. After the front moves through on Sunday, these higher winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 57 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 59 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 57 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 65 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 56 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
