PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:22 AM EDT407
FXUS61 KPBZ 200522
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
122 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will continue into Monday morning. Seasonable temperatures
are likely for the rest of the week. Lake enhanced rain showers
return Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Area-wide gusty wind threat decreases early this morning, save
for higher terrain
- Wind Advisory for eastern Tucker Co. WV continues through 8am
- Seasonable temperatures today
---------------------------------------------------------------
Rain continues across the region in the wake of a cold front,
with current rainfall rates between 0.10 and 0.25 inches per
hour. An additional 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain is expected over
the next 12 hours. Gusty winds will also persist, ranging from
25 to 30mph in lower elevations and 40-50mph along the ridges of
West Virginia ridges, where a Wind Advisory remains in effect.
Wind gusts are expected to ease by mid-morning as the pressure
gradient weakens with the departure of the low pressure system.
Clouds and precipitation chances will likely decrease from
south to north after sunrise with a ridge building to our west.
Temperatures today will likely trend near to slightly below
average in the wake of the front.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet and dry Monday night
- Seasonable overnight low temperatures
----------------------------------------------------------------
Clear and calm conditions are expected Monday night. Radiational
cooling will likely allow temperatures to fall into the mid-30s
to low-40s. The potential for widespread frost appears low,
given dew points remaining in the mid to upper 30s, no frost
headlines will be issued for this period.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence in cooler conditions
- Lake enhanced precipitation expected Tuesday/Wednesday
- Frost/Freeze headlines may return Thursday night
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ensembles continue to point to a broad long wave trough dropping
over the Great Lakes by Tuesday. The majority of clustered ensembles
now develop a closed upper low at the heart of this and hint at a
possible slower eastward movement. This trough will help in keeping
below average temperatures across the region through late week.
At the SFC, another low swinging through the Great Lakes will renew
rain chances especially across the north closer to Lake Erie.
Largely stout cloud cover should help keep overnight lows above
average for this time of year early in the period. By Thursday night
we start to see some clearing and overnight lows trend down into the
low 30s renewing the chance for frost/freeze headlines across the
region.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front has pushed east of the area flipping wind
westerly late tonight. A reinforcing surge cold advection, wrap
around precip, and gusty wind to 25-30 knots will move through
before dawn. Expect bouncing IFR to MVFR conditions within this
batch of rain with low level saturation holding ceilings right
on either side of 1 kft. Visibility has generally remained MVFR
upstream so expect a similar theme locally. Thermal profiles
are poor for lightning potential, so have just maintained the
prevailing SHRA.
VFR conditions will work in after sunrise in tandem with drier
air arriving from the west and eroding the cloud deck. Steep low
level lapse rates will allow for mixing to return gusts to
20-25 knots to area terminals after 14z and continuing through
Monday afternoon before settling for good by evening.
.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will likely maintain VFR conditions through
Tuesday before periodic restriction and rain chances return
Tuesday night through mid week as a series of shortwave troughs
cross the area. Daytime winds may continue to be breezy through
at least mid week as probabilities for gusts exceeding 20 kts
remain high (>60% chance) each afternoon through Wednesday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...MLB
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:22 AM EDT---------------
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