IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 12:50 PM EDT276
FXUS63 KIND 201650
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1250 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild and breezy today with sunny skies
- A few light showers late tonight with the passage of a cold front
- Windy conditions Tuesday with gusts up to 35 mph, isolated light
showers possible across north-central IN
- Seasonably cool temperatures Tuesday into this weekend with
frost/freeze potential Wednesday and Thursday nights
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Forecast is on track this morning. Sunny and dry conditions will
continue today with a dry atmosphere in place.
Tweaked hourly temperatures based on latest obs but no changes were
made to high temperatures. Winds will increase today as the pressure
gradient tightens with the approach of a cold front.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Skies were clear early this morning and winds have diminished
considerably from Sunday afternoon as the strong storm system has
moved away to the northeast. 06Z temperatures were mainly in the
40s.
A much quieter day is in store to start the work week with a surface
ridge moving across the region into the afternoon. A stronger upper
low with an associated surface wave will move into the upper Midwest
tonight. A cold front extending from the low will swing through the
Ohio Valley early Tuesday with clouds...a few light showers and a
reinforcing surge of cooler air to follow for midweek.
There remains at least some potential for frost prior to daybreak
focused primarily over the northern Wabash Valley. Winds remaining
at 4 to 8 mph through daybreak however should limit any frost
accrual to localized and sheltered areas where winds may briefly go
near calm.
Little in the way of any clouds are expected today with the
exception of a few thin mid level clouds passing by to the north.
Winds will pick up noticeably by this afternoon as the surface
pressure gradient tightens in between the departing surface ridge
and the approaching cold front. Gusts peaking at 20-25mph will be
possible as winds back to southerly by late day. The front will move
into the region by late evening then sweep across the forecast area
overnight. Moisture will be limited with the front and largely
confined to the mid levels while isentropic lift is weak and not
positioned favorably either. The lack of more substantial amounts of
both moisture and lift will keep any light showers isolated to
widely scattered and focused especially over the northern half of
the forecast area late tonight. Winds will increase with the
approach and passage of the front with the potential for gusts
peaking at 25 to 30 mph for a short time in the immediate wake of
the frontal passage as cold advection establishes.
Temps...the combination of warm advection developing and abundant
sunshine will enable highs to rise into the mid and upper 60s from
northeast to southwest across the forecast area. Lows tonight will be
in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
A large broad low pressure system will move through the region at
the start of the period with an associated cold front shifting east
of the area around daybreak Tuesday. Cold air advection behind the
front and slight daytime heating should promote steepening low-level
lapse rates through the day. Look for windy conditions as a result
with gusts up to 35 mph possible. The steepening lapse rates and
lingering low-level moisture could also promote isolated showers,
mainly across north-central Indiana.
Upper troughing across the eastern CONUS combined with subtle cold
air advection will keep temperatures below normal during the work
week. Quiet weather is expected Tuesday night through Thursday as
drier air filters in and surface high pressure slowly builds over
the region. Expect the coldest lows Wednesday and Thursday night due
to more favorable radiational cooling conditions. There is potential
for frost once winds relax Wednesday night, allowing lows to fall
into the mid 30s. Surface high pressure building overhead Thursday
night supports even colder lows near freezing for portions of
central Indiana.
Broad upper troughing aloft finally begins to shift out of the
region late this week, but guidance depicts another shortwave moving
in quickly. Forcing from the approaching system and gulf moisture
advection will lead to increasing rain chances heading into the
weekend. Exact details are still uncertain due to diverging model
solutions, but it is worth noting latest ensemble guidance is
slightly more bullish on rain chances/amounts.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
Impacts:
- Low level wind shear this evening and into the overnight
- Wind gusts of 20-25kt this afternoon with equal or higher
gusts Tuesday afternoon
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected through the period. A cold front will
bring some mainly mid clouds along with some sprinkles/light showers
tonight. Best chance for a shower will be at KLAF, but even then
odds for an impactful shower are low enough to leave out of the TAF.
Winds will be gusty this afternoon then probably diminish some
tonight. However, wind gusts will be stronger on Wednesday afternoon
with gusts of 30kt possible after 18Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 12:50 PM EDT---------------
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