JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 6:59 PM EDT039
FXUS63 KJKL 202259
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
659 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of strong, gusty winds is expected on Tuesday
afternoon as a dry cold front moves through.
- Much colder air will settle in for the middle of the week,
leading to the potential for frost in sheltered valleys on
Wednesday and Thursday nights.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
The forecast is on track. The latest hourly observed T/Td grids
were used for the initialization of the hourly forecast grids.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 406 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
A chilly but sunny late October afternoon is underway across the
eastern Kentucky Coalfields. Temperatures range from the lower to
mid-60s at lower elevations. The quiet weather is courtesy of a
1021 mb high near Atlanta, GA. Aloft, a 500 hPa ridge axis extends
from Alabama northward through the Great Lakes and into Northern
Ontario. Upstream, a 500 hPa trough is digging in the Northern and
Central Plains. An associated cold front extends from an ~1000 mb
surface low over Manitoba southeastward to near the Twin Cities
and then southward and westward into Texas.
This cold front will be the most impactful weather feature in the
short term. The upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will
move off the Atlantic Seaboard by Tuesday morning. This will allow
the cold front and its parent trough to move quickly eastward,
reaching our northwestern counties by daybreak Tuesday. Moisture
return remains very limited with this boundary. Most locations
should remain dry, with a 20-30% chance of precipitation included
for the frontal passage Tuesday morning. The boundary should be
southeast of the forecast area by noon, with breezy conditions
following under modest low-level CAA. GFS BUFKIT soundings
indicate sufficient momentum transfer for gusts to exceed 20 mph.
A secondary cold front will arrive Tuesday evening with the upper-
level trough axis, bringing more clouds, a few sprinkles, and
continued breezy conditions with gusts of 10 to 20 mph persisting
into at least the first half of the night. While patchy fog
cannot be ruled out tonight, it should be restricted to the most
sheltered southeastern valleys and may start to dissipate before
sunrise as the pre-frontal mixing begins ahead of the cold front.
Also while patchy frost cannot be entirely ruled out tonight and
Tuesday night in the most sheltered hollows, most locations will
remain partially mixed at times, inhibiting frost formation.
Clear skies this evening will give way to a few high clouds
overnight. Lower clouds will move in from the northwest toward
dawn, along with a slight chance for a brief rain shower near the
I-64 corridor. It will be milder than last night, with lows from
the upper 30s in sheltered valleys to the upper 40s on ridgetops.
The coldest hollows could dip into the mid-30s with patchy frost.
On Tuesday, a band of clouds with a few showers will move quickly
from northwest to southeast during the morning. Behind the
showers, it will become mostly sunny and breezy, with temperatures
returning to the mid-60s to near 70F. Westerly winds could gust
over 20 mph at times during the afternoon. The breeze slowly
subsides Tuesday night with temperatures dropping into the mid and
upper 30s under partly cloudy skies. Patchy frost will again be
possible in the most sheltered hollows where winds become calm.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 446 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
Surface high pressure will reestablish itself across the region
behind the departing cold front on Wednesday. Upper-level flow will
remain northwesterly, maintaining CAA behind the front. This CAA
will suppress daytime highs on Wednesday, which are expected to
struggle to climb much above the lower 60s. For Wednesday night, the
combination of clear skies and continued CAA creates favorable
conditions for frost development across the valleys of eastern
Kentucky. While overnight minimum temperatures are generally
forecast to range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s, frost will be
possible in favorable, low-lying locations due to anticipated
significant radiational cooling under clear, calm conditions.
Thursday is forecast to feature a subtle warm-up as upper-level
height rises and low-level southwesterly flow returns to the area.
Highs will subsequently climb into the low to mid 60s. Persistent
upper-level northwesterly flow will allow for another potential
frost event overnight Thursday into Friday morning, with minimum
temperatures dropping back into the lower to upper 30s. Surface high
pressure will persist into Friday; however, the upper-level ridging
will begin to erode due to the approach of a shortwave trough moving
from the lee of the Rockies. Throughout Friday, as surface
cyclogenesis occurs upstream, a warm front is forecast to develop,
bringing increasing PoP chances beginning late Friday night and
persisting through the weekend and into early next week.
Overall, the period will be largely quiet as surface high pressure
keeps the area dry. However, the combination of high pressure and
persistent upper-level northwesterly flow will maintain chances for
widespread valley frost on both Wednesday and Thursday nights.
Another significant warm-up is expected by the weekend, though a
slow-moving surface low is forecast to bring increasing PoP chances
starting Friday and persisting into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
VFR conditions were prevailing across the entire area at TAF
issuance. As high pressure departs this evening, look for high
clouds to develop, then thicken and lower overnight as a
reinforcing cold front approaches the area. Ahead of this
moisture-starved boundary, low-level winds will begin to increase
leading to instances of LLWS beginning around 05-07Z and
persisting through the rest of the night before surface winds
increase on Tuesday morning and turbulent mixing occurs, negating
LLWS. Even with the frontal passage, ceilings should remain above
MVFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 6:59 PM EDT---------------
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