MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 12:54 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...144
FXUS64 KMOB 170554
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1254 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
- Showers and storms return to the forecast Saturday night into
Sunday morning, with potential strong storm development.
- The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase by
Friday evening, with a high risk expected for Saturday night and
Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions
and follow the posted beach warning flags.
- Drier air next week and expanding drought may lead to fire
weather concerns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
An upper ridge over the eastern CONUS yields to a large upper
trof which evolves over the central states on Saturday then pushes
across the eastern states Sunday into Sunday night. An associated
surface low passes well off to the north and brings a cold front
through the forecast area mainly during Sunday morning. Deep
layer moisture steadily improves ahead of the approaching front,
with precipitable water values reaching around 2 inches Saturday
night. A series of shortwaves embedded within the upper trof
look to result in the best deep layer lift organizing just ahead
of the approaching front. The timing of the best forcing looks to
be from 06Z Sunday through about 15Z Sunday, and plenty of
favorable shear will be available thanks to a 40-50 knot 850 mb
jet. The question for the severe weather potential looks to be
tied to the lower level lapse rates, which is typical for a mostly
nocturnal event like this. Guidance for MLCAPE values ranges from
500 J/kg (or less) to 1000-1500 J/kg, although it was noted that
GFS ensemble guidance showed about a 40% chance for CAPE values to
exceed 1000. We are currently not outlooked by SPC, but will
continue to monitor and mention strong storm development is
possible.
Have continued with a predominately dry forecast through
Saturday, except for a small chance of rain Saturday afternoon
over extreme southeast Mississippi. Likely pops follow for
Saturday night west of I-65 with chance to good chance pops
elsewhere, then chance to good chance pops continue into Sunday
morning. Sunday afternoon will be mostly dry except for a small
chance of rain east of I-65, then dry conditions follow for Sunday
night and Monday. Another cold front approaches the area Monday
night then moves through on Tuesday, but moisture return ahead of
the front will be insufficient to warrant pops. Yet another cold
front approaches the area Wednesday night then slowly moves
through Thursday into Thursday night, but again deep layer
moisture looks too limited to support rain chances as well. A low
risk of rip currents on Friday will be followed by a moderate risk
for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday will be a
high risk, then a moderate risk is in effect for Sunday night and
Monday. A low risk of rip currents follows for Monday night
through Tuesday night. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
VFR conditions prevail through Friday evening with the exception
of patchy late night fog over the southern portion of the area.
Calm or light and variable winds become southeasterly near 10
knots on Friday. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025
A light to moderate southeasterly flow continues through Saturday,
then a northwesterly flow develops on Sunday as a cold front moves
through. The offshore flow briefly strengthens Sunday night then
diminishes on Monday. A light to moderate westerly to northerly
flow prevails for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 63 85 67 84 / 0 0 0 10
Pensacola 68 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 10
Destin 69 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 59 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 10
Camden 60 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 12:54 AM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...---------------
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