ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:23 AM EDT335
FXUS61 KILN 200523
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
123 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge of high pressure will offer sunny skies today. A fast-moving
area of low pressure moving across the upper Great Lakes will bring
a chance of precipitation late tonight into Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures will follow the system on Wednesday through the end of
the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface low pressure will quickly exit to the northeast today as
surface ridging builds in across the middle and upper Ohio River
Valley. Other than a few remnant clouds across central Ohio to start
the day, sunny skies are expected. Winds will become southerly by the
afternoon as the ridge slides just to our east. Temperatures will be
a couple of degrees below normal for mid to late October.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A sharp mid-level shortwave will quickly dig southeast from the
northern Plains into the upper Midwest tonight and Great Lakes
on Tuesday. Rather strong surface low associated with this feature
will move into the Great Lakes near the international border during
this time. Can't rule out a few showers late tonight into Tuesday
morning accompanying the mid-level energy, with convective showers
possible Tuesday afternoon as heights fall and perhaps a bit of weak
instability develops. Best chance of precipitation will remain
across our northern counties.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold air advection behind the system will be ongoing Tuesday night
and Wednesday, offering below normal temperatures that will persist
through the end of the work week. Latest guidance shows surface high
pressure building over the middle Ohio Valley Thursday night,
bringing the coldest temperatures so far this autumn. With lows near
the freezing mark, frost appears likely assuming any increase in high
clouds holds off until after sunrise Friday morning.
Looking toward next weekend, the mid-level trough axis will slide to
our east. Ensemble guidance shows a disturbance over the lower to
middle Mississippi Valley bringing increasing clouds and a chance of
showers to close the period. Temperatures will return to near normal
values.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely through the TAF period. Winds will turn
southerly this afternoon and southwesterly tonight. With winds off
the surface increasing to around 40-45 knots late tonight, we will be
near LLWS thresholds. Will hold off on placing in the TAFs for now
since surface winds are likely to stay up overnight as the pressure
gradient tightens.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:23 AM EDT---------------
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