JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:43 AM EDT919
FXUS63 KJKL 200543
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
143 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Look for clearing skies, chilly temperatures, and light winds
overnight.
- Another round of strong, gusty winds is expected on Tuesday
afternoon as a dry cold front moves through.
- Much colder air will settle in for the middle of the week,
leading to the potential for frost in sheltered valleys on
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
but also a tweaking of the PoPs in the northeast for the next
couple of hours based on radar returns. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a
freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 840 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
00Z sfc analysis shows low pressure northeast of the state with a
cold front exiting to the east. This has left northwest and
upslope flow in place along with brisk conditions even as the
bulk of the pcpn is moving out of the area. Just a stray storm is
crossing southern parts of the area with quieter and colder
conditions to follow through the night. Currently temperatures are
running in the mid 40s to lower 50s across the area - a far cry
from reading yesterday at this time. Meanwhile, amid west to
northwest winds of around 10 mph and gusts up to 20 mph, dewpoints
are generally in the mid to upper 40s. Have updated the forecast
mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also fine tune the last of the PoPs through the evening per
the CAMs consensus and current radar returns. These adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 513 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
A blustery, showery, and increasingly chilly afternoon is coming to
a close across eastern Kentucky behind two cold fronts. Temperatures
are 20 to 30 degrees colder that this time yesterday with values
ranging mainly in the 50s. Chillier readings in the 40s are noted
above 2,500 feet. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers
across the area, most numerous northeast of US-421. The latest
analysis shows the aforementioned boundaries now off to our east
over West Virginia and Virginia. Aloft, a high amplitude 500 hPa
trough, extending from the Hudson Bay to the Southeast CONUS, is
taking on a positive tilt over the Lower Ohio Valley. An upstream
ridge is noted from the Southern High Plains northward into
Manitoba/Saskatchewan.
The upper level trough axis will cross eastern Kentucky and rapidly
pivot away to northeast this evening, making way for the upstream
ridge to quickly build into the Ohio Valley tonight and Monday. The
pattern will remain very progressive though as that ridge will move
east and allow the next trough to approach Monday night. At the
surface, the blustery breezes and convective showers will
diminish/taper off from southwest to northeast this evening. Strong
drying to the east of the ridge axis will cause skies to clear
quickly behind the departing showers. Mostly clear skies are
expected by just after midnight across the entire forecast area as
surface high pressure builds in, cresting over the Southern
Appalachians around 12z Monday. That high pressure departs into the
Atlantic by Monday night, making way for a moisture-starved cold
front dropping in from the northwest. Once the clouds clear tonight,
slowing winds and a dry air mass should allow for efficient
radiational cooling, leading to patchy frost formation in the
coolest sheltered hollows and patchy fog in the valleys of the
mainstem rivers/larger tributaries. Patchy frost will be possible
again on Monday night, but should be confined to the sheltered far
eastern hollows as a strengthening pressure gradient should induce
occasional mixing late Monday night in the valleys further west.
In sensible weather terms, look for the blustery showers and gusty
west breeze (up to 25-35 mph) to gradually diminish from southwest
to northeast this evening. Clearing skies follow quickly with
temperatures settling into the mid 30s to low 40s, coldest in the
sheltered valleys of the Cumberland River Basin. A touch of light
frost is possible in the coldest spots along with some fog in the
favored river valleys. On Monday, mostly sunny skies prevail but
it will be cool with highs only in the mid 60s for most locations.
For Monday night, clear skies can be expected for most if not all
of the night, except near I-64 where clouds increase towards
daybreak with a slight shower chance by 12Z. It will be seasonably
cool Monday night with lows ranging from the mid 30s in the
coldest eastern valleys to the mid/upper 40s over the thermal belt
ridges, in the I- 75 Corridor/Lake Cumberland region, and over
the eastern Bluegrass.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 511 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2025
Tuesday, an upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes region will
be trailing a cold front southward across the Ohio and Mississippi
Valley. This cold front will move across the Eastern Kentucky early
Tuesday afternoon, although this system will have less moisture than
the previous one. A few showers will be possible, along with breezy
winds 20-30 mph. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonable in the
mid to upper 60s. At night, as the upper low pulls away to the
northeast, skies clear out some under light winds. Low dew points
will allow for temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s,
particularly in eastern valleys, upper 30s in valleys further west,
and low 40s along ridgetops. Patchy frost will be possible.
High pressure builds into the region through Thursday. This will
lead to drier conditions and mostly sunny skies. Westerly winds
Wednesday will be breezy, 10-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph possible.
Temperatures will hover around 60 across the area with upper 50s
towards the Bluegrass. With low dew points present again, and mostly
clear skies, temperatures are expected to decouple in valleys
leading to lows in the lower 30s in coldest valleys and upper 30s
elsewhere. Areas of frost are expected Thursday morning.
Thursday, mostly sunny skies are expected with the last day of high
pressure hanging onto the region. Winds will be lighter and out of
the southwest, leading to temperatures creeping into the low to mid
60s during the afternoon. Thursday night will be similar to the
previous two, with valleys in dropping into the low to mid 30s and
upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Frost formation is again possible.
Friday, Dry conditions will last through the day, with highs in the
low to mid 60s. Increasing clouds can be expected with the next
system approaching the area. Lows generally in the mid 40s.
Saturday and Sunday an upper low in the Mid-Mississippi valley area
will progress north and east into the region providing the next
chance of showers over the weekend. Temperatures will generally
remain in the 60s with lows in the 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2025
Largely VFR conditions are expected overnight minus river valley
sites like KSME and KLOZ which are expected to see river valley
fog. River valley fog is expected to bring MVFR to IFR conditions
through sunrise. Once fog burns off, all terminals will improve
to VFR and remain VFR through the rest of the period. Increasing
and lowering CIGS are expected toward the end of the period as
another frontal boundary approaches the area.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 1:43 AM EDT---------------
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