PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:49 AM EDT176
FXUS61 KPBZ 190449
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1249 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring showers, isolated thunderstorms,
and gusty winds today. Seasonable temperatures return Monday
into Friday with lake enhanced shower chances.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain shower chances increase late morning
- A cold front is expected to advance through the region; wind
gusts in the vicinity of the front could exceed 40mph
---------------------------------------------------------------
An upper-level trough is currently moving through central
Indiana early this morning. Prolonged and deep southwesterly
flow is supporting warm advection, allowing early morning
temperatures to remain above seasonal averages despite some
clearing. With lingering dry air evident on GOES-19 water vapor
imagery, quiet and mainly dry conditions are expected to persist
through early morning hours.
Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances are expected to
increase by late morning as the trough and its associated cold
front progress eastward. A strong vertical wind profile
accompanying this system will also support increasing surface
gusts as daytime heating promotes boundary layer mixing. Wind
gusts ahead of the frontal passage could range between 30-35mph.
Between noon and 6pm, a narrow band of showers and isolated
thunderstorms is expected to move into eastern Ohio and western
Pennsylvania. Strong wind gusts and brief periods of heavier
rainfall are likely along this band due to enhanced
frontogenesis. Some gusts may exceed 40mph, particularly where
the convection taps into a low-level jet across the Ohio River
Valley. If sufficient instability develops to support stronger
downdrafts, a few storms could be considered severe, producing
wind gusts over 55mph. Currently a "Marginal" risk (Level 1 of
5) highlights the potential for damaging wind gusts across the
region.
In the wake of the cold front, breezy conditions are expected to
continue into the overnight hours. However, the threat for
severe wind gusts should diminish after sunset. By midnight,
rainfall totals are expected to range from around one-half to
three-quarters of an inch. Given the prolonged dry conditions
this October, the potential for flooding remains low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Breezy conditions and light rain showers continue early Monday
in the wake of the cold front
- Seasonable temperature return
----------------------------------------------------------------
Lingering showers should taper across the region before sunrise
on Monday as the upper trough swings out of the area and
heights begin to rise. A northwesterly upslope flow regime could
help drizzle linger into the afternoon across our ridges.
Overall though, expect dry air to win out and skies are expected
to clear throughout the day and evening from west to east.
High temperatures are expected to be stunted across the region
Monday and return to near normal values after consecutive days
well above.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cooler weather returns next week
- Periodic rain chances continue through the week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Another upper trough swings across the Great Lakes and impinges
on the region by Tuesday. Clustered ensembles still indicate
timing and positional uncertainty with this wave but seem to
favor a possible slower eastward movement as an upper low tries
to close off in the base of the trough. At the SFC another low
pressure system is expected to occlude in the northern Great
Lakes and push a developing triple point low and cold front
across the region. At this time the highest rain chances remain
north, closest to the low but lower end rain chances extend
southward across the remainder of the region along the front.
Temperatures look to drop again in the wake of this low mid-
week with below normal temperatures for this time of year and
continued low-end rain chances as shortwaves round the base of
the parent trough.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Confidence remains high in VFR conditions area-wide at least
through daybreak with high pressure being shunted to the east.
Encroaching clouds are expected to thicken and lower, however,
with the approach of the next system. An increasing pressure
gradient overnight over a decoupled surface is expected to
accelerate winds some aloft, though gusts are not expected to
approach LLWS tolerance. Come daybreak tomorrow, mixing is
expected to ensue, allowing momentum transfer to the surface
with wind gusts through much of the late morning and early
afternoon. Confidence in any LLWS wains, as mixing most likely,
but will continue to monitor for future TAF cycles.
The low pressure and rainfall are not expected to encroach the
area from the west until 14Z at ZZV (along with the first non-
zero chance of MVFR/IFR). A rapid cig fall is expected in
heavier showers and especially along a cold front that will pass
most ports in the afternoon hours. A couple hundred joules of
CAPE may also be enough to produce isolated bouts of lightning
within the line. Low level moisture and rapid surface cooling
may also result in some vis reductions to MVFR/IFR at times. It
is possible that some winds in the strongest, linearly oriented
parts of the cold front in a shower/storm may experience a brief
wind gust of up to 50kts, though most will not. This is most
likely in western PA and northern WV. Elsewhere, most of the
afternoon will be gusty with mixing into a LLJ. The most likely
maximum values will lie between 30kts and 40kts, but localized
higher gusts could not be ruled out.
The gustiest winds are most likely to depart after 00Z for ports
as the surface low sits overhead, but some winds may briefly
pick up again overnight to 20kt to 30kt as the pressure gradient
again intensifies on the backside of the low. Again, most of
the is expected to mix in adiabatic profiles, but even if there
is some surface decoupling, LLWS is possible. Showers and vis
restrictions may also linger in nocturnal cold advection.
.OUTLOOK...
The likelihood of MVFR to IFR cigs increases Sunday night into
early Monday with cold advection within the boundary layer.
High pressure will likely restore VFR conditions after sunrise
Monday, save perhaps FKL and DUJ with lake influence. Winds may
continue to be breezy through at least mid week as probabilities
for gusts exceeding 25 kts remain high (>60% chance) each
afternoon through Wednesday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Cermak/MLB
LONG TERM...MLB/AK
AVIATION...Milcarek
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 12:49 AM EDT---------------
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