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961 FXUS64 KLIX 100428AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1128 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES...Updated at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Hazardous marine conditions for all of the coastal waters through Saturday morning. - Cooler and drier weather expected through this weekend.&&.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025A highly amplified pattern across the eastern CONUS will remain inplace through the weekend as a very strong upper level trough dominates the eastern seaboard and a very strong deep layer ridge dominates the plains states. This will place the Gulf South in apersistent northerly flow regime through the weekend. Embeddedwithin this northerly flow pattern, a northern stream shortwavetrough and attendant cold front will slide through the regionFriday morning. A cooler and even drier airmass will advect inbehind this front, and this will lead to a very pleasant stretchof weather for the weekend. Low humidity, clear skies, and nearaverage temperatures can be expected through Sunday. Highs willonly warm into the low to mid 80s and overnight lows will plungeinto the mid to upper 50s north of the I-10/12 corridor and thelow to mid 60s south of I-10/12. &&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday night)Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025The pattern will begin to shift as we move into the next workweekas the upper level trough over the eastern seaboard lifts to thenortheast. This will allow the deep layer ridge over the plains toexpand eastward and build across the Gulf South early next week.The ridge will then remain the dominant feature impacting theweather in the region through Thursday night. Strong subsidencewill help to both warm temperatures and keep any rain chances atbay. In the low levels, a persistent northeast wind will alsolimit low level moisture advection off the Gulf, so dewpoints willremain in the 50s each afternoon. This will allow humidity valuesto fall into the 30 to 40 percent range each day. A weakreinforcing backdoor front sliding down from the northeast willalso help to keep the drier air in place. With clear skies and dryair in place, a large diurnal range will take hold. Highs willonce again run warmer than average with readings climbing into themid to upper 80s each afternoon. However, strong radiationalcooling overnight will allow lows to quickly drop into the 60seach night. Overall, a very benign run of weather will be in placethrough the end of next week. &&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025Prevailing VFR conditions will be in place at all of the terminals on the back of persistent northerly winds. At NEW and MSY, increased thermal mixing over the warmer lake waters willallow stronger winds of 15 to 20 knots to descend down to thesurface. These stronger winds will persist through the end of theforecast period.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025An extended period of small craft advisory conditions will be inplace across the waters through Saturday as a tight pressuregradient between a high to the northwest and a low to thesoutheast remains in place. North to northeast winds of 15 to 25knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet in the Gulf waters will producerough boating conditions. Conditions will gradually improveSaturday night as a surface high becomes more centered over thearea. By Sunday and Monday, lighter winds of less than 10 knotswill be in place beneath this high pressure system. Seas will alsodecrease to between 1 and 3 feet over this period. Tuesday willsee a weak front slip through the waters as the high shifts backto the west, and northeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 knotsfor both Tuesday and Wednesday.&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 60 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 61 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 63 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 70 83 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 65 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 63 85 59 85 / 10 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....PGAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
