PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 1:14 AM CDT499
FXUS63 KPAH 150614
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
114 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure keeps us dry and seasonally mild for the rest of
the work week.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, and the
best chance is Saturday, which includes a potential risk for
strong to severe storms in the afternoon and evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
The 'ides' of October signals a strong high pressure dominance
that gives us a repeat upon repeat performance of our daily
spectaculars. That is, high temperatures from the upper 70s to
lower half 80s, which numbers pretty much finish out the week
actually. The Omega blocking high is finally shifted to the East
Coast this weekend, as the western flank long wave trof falls
heights here and drives a cold front thru in so doing. This
front will be instablity challenged but is best timed in
Saturday afternoon-evening, so strong storm chances may
increase or decrease depending upon early morning layouts. Dew
points hover in the 50s thru Friday, then punch up into the
lower half 60s along/ahead of the incoming front Saturday.
Strengthening shear profiles alone are impressive, so we'll see
if that and the moisture tongue can overcome the lack of modeled
instability with generally poor lapse rates for some strong
storms to develop.
The weekend finishes with pops winding down as the fropa has
completed and cooler air filters in on its backside. Highs drop
about 10F and with a stiff nw breeze will feel almost chilly
compared to our lasting warm wave of this week. Temps hover
there if not a few degrees warmer in the lower half 70s as the
new week ensues.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
High pressure keeps a dry and mild flight forecast. We'll have
to watch for patchy daybreak fog that holds vsby restrictions.
Time/height cross sections depict little more than the patchy
fog that can develop, though the back half of the forecast may
see some increase in VFR mid-upper level bases.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 1:14 AM CDT---------------
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