PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 1:48 AM EDT733
FXUS61 KPBZ 100548
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
148 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry and cool conditions into the upcoming
weekend. The next chance of rain arrives this weekend, as
weakening Great Lakes low pressure combines forces with a
developing coastal storm system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Clear and quiet
- Frost/freeze conditions
---------------------------------------------------------------
The forecast remains on track from the day-shift. The highest
probabilities of frost/freeze remain within the
advisory/warning area. Given the topographic complexity of the
area, note that insulated valley may pool cooler air more
efficiently than ridgetops. Because of this, micro-scale
pockets of frost/freeze are possible across the whole area, so
take action to bring plants indoors if necessary.
.. Previous Discussion ..
This clear sky trend will continue tonight, although some
localized steam fog may be possible again over the larger
rivers. The main question centers around temperatures and the
frost/freeze potential. The surface high track keeps a very
modest surface pressure gradient over our region, with light
easterly low-level flow tonight. While radiational cooling will
not be ideal due to this, the dry air mass with dewpoints
dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s will still support
conditions capable of producing frost/freeze conditions. Still,
the Laurel Ridges in particular are tricky - the ridges are a
bit more likely to hold on to wind overnight, and nearby valleys
may experience a bit of a downslope effect from the easterly
flow, if it remains strong enough.
Ended up going with a NBM mean/10th percentile temperature blend
with a few tweaks, similar to previous shifts. This supports
freezing or just below temperatures mainly to the north of
Pittsburgh and in eastern Tucker County, and this is where the
Freeze Warning has been placed. Frost Advisories were hoisted
for other counties, save for portions of northern West Virginia
and eastern Ohio. The aforementioned Laurels have a Frost
Advisory for now, and cannot rule out the need for an upgrade
here. The easterly flow/non-ideal radiational cooling does
provide a hit to confidence.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Slight warming trend and dry conditions through Saturday.
- Increasing clouds Saturday afternoon.
----------------------------------------------------------------
The high will weaken as it moves eastward off the New England coast
by Friday night with a ridge extending southwestward to eastern
Kentucky. This will help to maintain mostly clear skies tomorrow.
Wind is forecast to shift out of the southeast allowing for air to
warm as result of downsloping along the ridges. Highs are forecast
to reach into the mid to upper 60s, around average temperatures for
this part of autumn. Light southeasterly wind will persist overnight
inhibiting efficient radiative cooling, resulting in warmer
overnight lows into the 40s.
The ridge will weaken as it moves eastward on Saturday. Most of the
region expected to remain dry with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
Increasing clouds expected to the northwest moving into Saturday
afternoon with an upper level trough approaching from the
northwestern Great Lakes region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Chance for measurable precipitation Saturday night into Sunday
- Temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
- Drier pattern returns next week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
By Saturday night, an upper-level trough in the area will bring
a chance for measurable precipitation Saturday night through
Sunday night. There is a higher probability (>75%) for
measurable precipitation for western Pennsylvania and northern
West Virginia while a 55%-75% probability in eastern
Ohio/northern West Virginia panhandle. High temperatures will
slightly cool into the low to mid 60s on Sunday.
Models have been showing good continuity with this trough
phasing with a coastal low off the Carolina coast on Sunday.
There is a higher relative level of uncertainty in these
scenarios mainly with the strength of the low/trough. Guidance
shows relatively good agreement in ridging building back in over
the eastern CONUS, however, there is uncertainty with the
strength of the ridge as the trough moves offshore.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the
TAF period as high pressure centered over the Northeast drifts
east. Steam fog may occur once again on the larger rivers given
expected cold air temperatures, but any terminal impact should
be brief at best. Light wind will become southeasterly this
morning.
.OUTLOOK...
VFR is expected through Saturday under high pressure.
Restriction and shower potential returns Saturday night through
early Monday as an upper level low tracks southeast across the
region.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ020-021-029-
031-073>076-078.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ007>009-
013>016-022-077.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057-058.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ001-002-
510>513.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CL
NEAR TERM...CL/Milcarek
SHORT TERM...Lupo
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Rackley
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 1:48 AM EDT---------------
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