BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 7:53 PM EDT938
FXUS61 KBOX 012353
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
753 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High surf and rip currents expected into Thursday as southerly
swells impact the coast. A cool and dry airmass arrives tonight.
Above to well above normal temperatures are then expected by
this weekend, which then continues into early next week. Dry
weather is expected to prevail through early next week, with our
next chance for rainfall not anticipated until the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* Dry/quiet weather overnight
* Chilly with lows ranging from upper 30s to low 50s
No significant changes to the forecast this evening.
Previous Discussion...
High pressure builds over Canada builds southeast overnight.
This will support dry/quiet weather across souther New England.
Northeast winds associated with anti-cyclonic flow around the
surface high positioned to our north will advect cooler air over
the region. 925 hPa temps drop below 5C and are likely to
translate to surface temps in the mid to upper 30s across the
interior/high terrain and low to upper 40s across eastern MA.
Temperatures will be more mild along the coast, especially on
Cape Cod, in the upper 40s to low 50s. Some patchy frost
possible for location that experience temperatures below 37
degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
230PM Update
Key Messages:
* Still cooler than normal for Thurs (low to mid 60s highs), but
full sun and easing northeast winds.
* Cool/dry again Thursday night with northeast winds becoming
south/southwesterly
Thursday and Thursday night
High pressure settles over the region tomorrow supporting
abundant sunshine and dry weather. Temperatures will be below
normal in the low to mid 60s. Winds remain steady out of the
northeast around 10-15 mph for the first half of the day and
gradually weaken as the afternoon progresses in response to a
weakening pressure gradient. Dry/quiet weather persist into
tomorrow night. Clear skies and light winds should support
efficient radiational cooling which will result in another
chilly evening with low temperatures generally in the upper
30s/lower 40s with locally lower/higher temperatures over the
high terrain and on The Cape/Islands respectively.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Protracted dry weather continues, with our next chance for
rain not anticipated until the middle of next week.
* Above to well above normal temps for this weekend into early
next week, potentially into the mid 80s this weekend.
Details:
Latest guidance did not show much change from previous
forecasts. Still expecting a high pressure to provide dry
weather into at least the early part of next week. Temperatures
still anticipated to be above normal this weekend into early
next week as well. The lack of rainfall will only exacerbate
fire weather concerns. Fortunately, not expecting winds to be
very strong during this portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight: High confidence.
Mainly VFR SKC. Potential for periods of low-end VFR/MVFR bases
from ocean-effect stratocumulus for Cape/Islands and perhaps to
PVD after 04z. Mainly light north winds across the interior
(calm at times). Gradual decrease in NE winds for
eastern/southeast airports, though gusts around 25 kts still
over the Cape and Islands.
Thursday: High confidence.
VFR, steadily decreasing NE wind speeds to become 10 kt or
less by late-afternoon, with light/calm winds for the interior.
Thursday Night... High confidence.
VFR. Winds shifting to light out of the west under high
pressure.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday through Sunday Night: VFR.
Monday:
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Thursday night...High Confidence
Small Craft Advisory conditions persist through most of tomorrow
but with improving conditions as tropical systems well offshore
continue to move east over The Atlantic ocean. 5 to 10 foot seas
overnight with gusty, near gale force winds over the southeast
waters. Winds should be sub- gale force everywhere by sunrise
tomorrow. Winds and seas gradually diminish/subside through the
day tomorrow before becoming more calm tomorrow night into
Friday morning with high pressure dominating the coastal waters.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-015-
016-019>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ230-236.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ231>234.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237-
251.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-256.
Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254-255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...Belk/RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...Belk/RM
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 1, 7:53 PM EDT----------------
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