ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 6:29 AM EDT553
FXUS61 KILN 271029
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
629 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High and dry will be the rule in the Ohio Valley for the next week
with above normal temperatures and scant sky cover. Tropical systems
off of the southeast coast will result in a dry northeast wind in the
region through at least mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After some morning fog, sunny skies in a dry airmass will permit
temperatures to rebound back into the 80s today, with most of CWA
forecast uniformly between 80 and 83. Dewpoints in the low-mid 50s
will make this a comfortable fall day. An early peak in Td around 15Z
should be followed by a 4-5 degree drop through the remainder of the
day. NBM and forecast dewpoints are a bit higher but follow the same
trend.
Some high cloud cover will be seen in eastern CWA as the axis of the
upper low moves e and away. Otherwise, a few fair wx cu will be
possible in the afternoon and dissipate before nightfall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Clear sky cover and light wind will promote lows to fall between
55-59 tonight, and any fog will mainly be confined to the valleys.
No indication of cu or high clouds is noted from what I am able to
discern on Sunday. Expect a sunny, dry day with a bump in temps to
uniformly max out between 83-86.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
By the end of the weekend, a deep ridge will be well established
over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions providing continued dry
conditions and light northeasterly flow. Temperatures remain above
average into the early parts of the week with light northeasterly
flow the only factor limiting the ceiling for warmer temperatures.
Into midweek, the interaction of PTC9 (Imelda once formed) and a
lingering upper level low may contribute increased sky cover and low
chances for rainfall, primarily across the south. Latest trends
within the ensembles suggest the system may struggle to advance
northwestward inland. This would decrease the potential for rainfall
across the local area. Until Imelda forms and advances northward out
of the Bahamas, there remains a great deal of uncertainty with this
system. Some of the more recent guidance suggests the local area may
stay dry through the entire period.
Of higher confidence, a trough is expected to drop through southeast
Canada into the northeast US Wednesday night and Thursday, ushering
in a renewed surge of dry but cooler air from the north. That is why
high temperatures are a few degrees cooler Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures in the mid 70s are much closer to area normals for
early October. Surface high pressure shifts to the Mid-Atlantic on
Friday, prompting an eventual change in the wind direction to be
more out of the southeast instead of the northeast.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level cirrus located east of the upper trough will skim
CMH/LCK today, and some fair wx cu will accompany it this afternoon.
Elsewhere, fair wx cu 5-6kft will be scattered in nature this
afternoon.
Very light nly wind today will be erratic at times and under 5kt.
LUK is expected to fog in for another night of LIFR cigs/vsbys due
to radiational cooling producing dense fog in valleys.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Franks
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 6:29 AM EDT---------------
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