LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 6:30 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...816
FXUS64 KLIX 272330 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
630 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry forecast for much of the period with warm afternoons and
comfortable low temperatures each day.
- Rain chances slightly increase toward the end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Overall not a lot to really talk about for a good chunk of the
forecast. A very dry environment is in place across the region
with only some very thin CU able to develop this afternoon mostly between
5k and 7500 ft. We have been mixing pretty well today but
dewpoints haven't quite fallen off as much as some of the models
were anticipating yesterday and temps have mostly climbed into the
mid 80s with a few upper 80s out there.
The forecast through Monday morning will continue to be quiet and
very dry. The biggest forecast question is how cool can we get
tonight and tomorrow night however we are only talking about upper
50s to mid/upper 60s which really should have no impact on the
area. NBM was a touch too warm last night and looks too warm again
tonight and unlike yesterday the latest deterministic fcst from
the NBM is a few degrees above the 50%. Again the only real thing
that will possibly hurt radiational cooling tonight will be the
winds in the LL. It was mentioned yesterday and the models
continue to show it today sfc winds are very light and likely
decouple and winds around h85 are on the lighter side...10kt or
less. However, again the models are showing h925 wind almost
steadily around 15kt and that could provide some mixing. This is
slightly stronger than what was advertised yesterday. The spread
in the NBM has increased a little with the main adjustment being
the the bottom 25% is a degree or two colder than yesterday. Will
lean in the direction of the NBM10 and NBM25 using a 33/33/33 of
the NBM10/25/NBM. This does get a few isolated areas just below 60
but most of the area will generally fall into the lower to mid
60s.
Sunday is probably a carbon copy of today but tomorrow night lows
will probably be just a few degrees warmer but we are still
looking at lows in the 60s for most of the area. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
As was highlighted in yesterdays discussion the mid lvl pattern is
chaotic and the eastern 3rd of the CONUS and western Atlantic or
to get a little more specific southeastern CONUS and the Atlantic
just east of there is going to be very difficult to get details
down. This is because we will see our trough that moved through
yesterday slowly sliding east across that area, the approach of
PTC9, and the Hurricane Humberto. The combination these systems
and a ridge setting up over the Great Lakes and OH Valley will
really make the steering currents for PTC9 (maybe Imelda in the
next 12-24 hours) weak and the eventual evolution of the pattern
over the southeastern CONUS. That said, this actually has mostly
minimal impacts on our region with the fcst generally benign most
of the week.
The main thing this week will be how everything evolves over the
southeastern CONUS. The trough that moved through yesterday will
initially help to steer PTC9 north towards the GA/SC/NC coast but
will PTC9 actually make it to the coast is a whole different
subject. However for our area we will actually see some ridging
take place over the area. That trough will over the SERN CONUS
will fill but some of it will get caught off as Sunday
night/Monday as the ridge north of it stretches east. As PTC9
moves north it will begin to slow. Humberto on the other hand
will get a little closer to it and start to speed up as it turns
more north and then NNE. How fast that happens and where exactly
PTC9 is will have major implications on the eventual track of PTC9
as it could provide a route for PTC9 to lift out. That still
doesn't really mean much for us but the one thing that does is our
old trough that saw a piece get caught off will actually start to
rotate back to the southwest towards the region. Moisture will
not see any major recovery but what that could do is as that piece
of energy deepens a little more and moves closer to the Lower MS
Valley it could squeeze a few storms late Wednesday and into
Thursday. It will also help us from warming up much as it quickly
suppresses the ridge that will try to build over the area Monday
and Tuesday. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle. Surface winds will
remain light...generally 10 knots or less and mostly northerly or
variable. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Offshore flow will continue through the weekend but winds will
remain on the lighter side for the most part. Winds will
temporarily increase the next two nights over MS Sound and along
the waters just off the SELA coast, mainly after midnight and
through mid morning before slacking back off during the day. This
northerly flow is expected to continue through much of the
forecast. Convection chances are low but not zero early to mid
week next week. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 60 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 62 89 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 60 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 70 90 71 91 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 66 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 61 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 6:30 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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