LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 3:15 PM EDT445
FXUS63 KLMK 301915
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Continued dry and warm weather expected through the week, into
the weekend.
* With several days of dry weather, drought conditions are expected
to persist or worsen.
* Rain chances start to increase by early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Very little changes over the short term as we will remain under
strong ridging aloft and sfc high over eastern Canada. This will
continue to keep us dry and warmer than normal. The scattered Cu
field this afternoon will dissipate along with winds with the
setting sun. Skies will be clear and winds light as we go overnight
with morning lows ranging from the mid 50s across the Bluegrass to
upper 50s/low 60s along the KY/TN border and west of I-65. Tomorrow
will be nearly identical to today with mostly sunny skies, a
scattered Cu field in the afternoon with temperatures above normal
into the mid/upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist through the
end of the week as the upper ridge holds over the Ohio Valley.
Strong sfc high will drop southeast out of Quebec and over New
England/Mid-Atlantic. By the weekend, a weak upper low over the
southeastern US will retrograde westward over the southeast US and
Deep south. This will undercut the ridging over the Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes, shifting the ridge axis along the eastern US coast and
pushing the sfc high pressure out over the Atlantic.
An upper-level trough pushes eastward from the Intermountain West
into the central US over the weekend, as a sfc low develops over the
Dakotas, quickly lifting northeast towards Hudson Bay by Sunday
night. Increased southerly flow will all for gulf moisture to advect
northward into the region by Sunday as a weak mid-level wave lifts
northward from the Gulf and into the Ohio Valley by the start of
next week. This looks to be our next chance at see some
precipitation across the area. Confidence remains low as there
remains significant discrepancies between the deterministic models,
when it comes to timing and amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
We continue with VFR flight categories though the forecast period.
Scattered mid-level Cu has developed with winds out of the north-
northeast and some gusts could approach 15-20kts this afternoon. As
has been the trend the last few nights, winds will diminish, skies
will clear with the setting sun. With the same weather setup for
tomorrow, we will see similar weather conditions.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...BTN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 30, 3:15 PM EDT---------------
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