JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 2:45 PM EDT211
FXUS63 KJKL 281845
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
245 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather is expected through the day on Monday.
- Moisture from Tropical Depression Nine could combine with an
upper low to bring a chance of showers into portions of east KY
Monday night into Tuesday.
- Confidence is high that the impacts from the tropical system
will be minimal across the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
Lingering fog and low clouds in southeast KY continue to
dissipate and should dry up latest this morning. Morning obs were
blended into the forecast without any substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 751 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
satellite trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time.
Fog should gradually lift and dissipate over the next couple of
hours, giving way to sunny or mostly sunny skies. A few shallow
cumulus may develop my midday into the afternoon. Temperatures
should climb into the 80s for most locations with high pressure
dominating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 555 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered near
Bermuda with another area of upper level ridging centered over the
Lower Rio Grande/Southern Plains and extending to the mid MS
Valley to Lower OH Valley regions. Meanwhile, TD was centered over
portions of the Bahamas while an upper level trough extended from
the mid Atlantic states to the Southeast eastern Gulf. At the
surface, a ridge of high pressure extended from the mid Atlantic
states to the OH Valley to Ozarks vicinity. Locally, valley fog
has developed, especially for locations south of the Mtn Parkway
and this has become dense in some areas per AWOS or ASOS obs and
KY Mesonet cameras. An SPS was issued through 10 AM EDT to
highlight the fog early this morning.
Today through Monday, guidance has a trend of rising 500 mb
heights across eastern KY and the OH Valley into this evening as
an upper level ridge strengthens/becomes centered northwest of the
OH Valley in the IL vicinity. At the same time, a broad upper
trough is expected to develop over the Southeast into the
Southern Appalachians to TN Valley later today and tonight
between the ridging extending from the Gulf into the Great Lakes
to Mid Atlantic and ridging centered northeast of Bermuda. As this
upper trough develops some gradual 500 mb height falls are
expected later tonight and into Monday. Meanwhile, TD 9 should
gradually meander north northwest to north of the Bahamas off the
southeast U.S. coast. Some moisture form this system should
gradually spread into portions of the Southeast and toward the
Southern Appalachians by late Monday.
Generally dry weather is expected during the short term period
with the valley fog this morning lifting and dissipating through
10 AM. Additional valley fog is favored to develop tonight as well
and that should lift and dissipate within a couple of hours past
sunrise on Monday. As moisture increases into the southern
Appalachians some showers may develop over parts of the southern
Appalachians and a stray shower could spread as far northwest as
the Black Mtn vicinity. Otherwise, temperatures will average 5 to
10 degrees above normal for highs through Monday.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 610 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
The period is expected to begin with upper level troughing
extending over sections of the Southeast from the Carolinas into
the Southern Appalachians and eastern KY while TD 9 likely a
tropical storm by the start of the long term period works slowly
north. Upper level ridging is expected to persist from the Gulf to
the Ozarks to mid MS Valley to Southern Great Lakes. Some moisture
from the tropical system will continue to move into sections of
the Southeast and Appalachians as the period begins. The consensus
of guidance is that that deeper moisture and better forcing from
the upper troughing for convection from Monday night to Tuesday
and Tuesday night should remain remain from nearer to the crest of
the Appalachians to the Carolinas and GA. However, enough
moisture may spread into southern and eastern sections of eastern
KY for isolated to perhaps scattered showers and maybe a storm on
Tuesday.
From Wednesday into Thursday, guidance generally has height rises
across the OH Valley as upper ridging persists across portions of
the midwest to Southern Great Lakes to mid Atlantic states while
an east to west oriented upper trough should persist from the
Southeast U.S. coast into the Southeast. This should lead to a
drier trend and a bit of a downward trend in temperatures as a
sfc high over Ontario builds into the area.
To end the week, guidance generally keeps an upper trough from the
Southeast U.S. coast into portions of the Gulf states. The most
recent ECMWF run and the ECMWF ensemble mean keep more of a closed
upper low over the Gulf states and lower heights into eastern KY
to end the week compared to recent GFS runs which have stronger
upper ridging from the mid Atlantic into the Central Conus and a
few dm higher heights across eastern KY. A sfc high pressure ridge
should extend into the region during the second half of the week.
Even the closed upper low solution of the latest ECMWF
deterministic run keeps eastern KY dry and guidance leads to
uncertainty for temperatures to end the week, whether nearer to
normal along the lines of the ECMWF guidance or upwards of 5
degrees above normal on the GFS end of the spectrum.
The forecast remains dry areawide from mid to late week, while
toward the end of the week, the NBM temperature guidance was a
reasonable compromise given the temperature uncertainty. The
pattern should support a ridge/valley temperature split with some
mid to upper 40s particularly for valleys and 50s for areas of
more open terrain and ridges.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2025
Valley fog will develop again tonight and then dissipate on Monday
morning, bringing localized VLIFR conditions, especially in
southeast KY. It may affect KLOZ and KSME around sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period, with
winds less than 10 kts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 28, 2:45 PM EDT---------------
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