CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 1:48 PM EDT606
FXUS61 KCLE 261748
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
148 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region and will remain in
control through the weekend. A weak cold front will drop south
across the lower Great Lakes by Monday before strong Canadian
high pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes and New
England through the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather through the near term as high pressure builds
northeast across the Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes.
Aside from a low probability/isolated shower this afternoon
across NW PA, main weather concern is fog potential late tonight
into Saturday morning. Focus of fog development will likely be
from the Canton/Akron area northeastward into NW PA. No dense
fog mention in the forecast at the moment, but will need to
watch visibility trends this evening into the overnight. If
dense fog does develop, it will likely focus in the Grand River
valley in western Trumbull and Ashtabula counties and smaller
river valleys in NW PA and NE OH. Mainly sunny skies expected
Saturday outside of diurnal cu east and any lifting fog/stratus
in the morning, with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s. Clear skies
expected again Saturday night with a similar radiational cooling
setup, so would no be surprised to see additional fog
development in the same locations as tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather continues into next week with high pressure
building northeast across the region Sunday. A weak cold front
drops south across Lake Erie Sunday night into Monday but this
should be a dry frontal passage. Canadian high pressure builds
southeast into the area Monday into Monday night. Sunday will be
the warmest day of the period with highs in the upper 70s to mid
80s, then slightly cooler Monday with the frontal passage and an
airmass change.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler long term period expected as Canadian high builds south
into the northeast CONUS. Dry conditions favored at this point
pending any tropical influence over the local area, but most
model guidance agrees that the strength of the ridge will keep
any tropical precipitation chances south of the region through
the week. Temperature will be cooler, with highs in the upper
60s to low 70s midweek, slowly moderating into the weekend as
the ridge axis shifts east. The coolest night looks to be
Wednesday night with upper 30s to upper 40s across the area. No
frost potential at this point in time given the stronger
gradient over the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with deterioration to
IFR vsbys from fog possible overnight into Saturday morning. A
similar scenario will unfold across the area tonight with the
potential for reduced vsbys from fog, though it appears the
coverage of fog will be more patchy than previous nights. If
dense fog does develop, it will be most likely found at YNG
where future TAF updates may necessitate prevailing fg
inclusion.
With the exception of a north to northwest lake breeze of 5 to 8
knots at CLE/ERI, winds are generally favoring a west to
southwest direction of 5 knots or less. Winds will become light
and variable overnight, perhaps favoring a slight south to
southeast direction.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in fog across the eastern half of the
area Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected
through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Overall, marine conditions will remain relatively calm through
the weekend with the region remaining between a cold front to
the north of Lake Erie and low pressure moving east across the
Deep South. Winds will generally be westerly at 5 to 12 knots
today before becoming more south/southwesterly late tonight
through Saturday. High pressure will maintain influence late
this weekend with generally light and variable flow anticipated
through the daytime Monday. Daily lake breezes will likely
result in onshore flow Saturday through Sunday and possibly
Monday. The pressure gradient will tighten Monday night into
Tuesday as high pressure attempts to build south into the region
and a tropical system moves somewhere in the vicinity of the
Southeast coastline, resulting in increasing northeast winds.
Still a bit too early to determine how strong winds will be over
the lake during this timeframe, but Small Craft Advisories are
possible as early as Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...03
NEAR TERM...03
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 26, 1:48 PM EDT---------------
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