LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 1:38 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...557
FXUS63 KLMK 270538
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Some patchy fog will be possible overnight.
* Mostly dry with warming temperatures expected this weekend.
* Uncertainty for next week, but the current forecast is for mostly
dry and warm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
It is a rather nice late-September day across the region, with temps
right at normal and a fair weather cu field overhead. Satellite
imagery shows a bit more cloud cover over the Lake Cumberland
region, which there is a weak PWAT gradient, and where a start
shower could pop up this afternoon. Confidence is not very high, so
will keep a silent PoP (less than 15%) for that area for the next
few hours. Otherwise, dry weather is expected for the rest of the
area.
These clouds will dissipate by this evening as peak heating is lost,
and we'll have mostly clear skycover into the overnight. Light winds,
clear sky, and some linger low level moisture may lead to some
patchy fog development tonight, possibly for southern IN and
portions of KY west of the I-65 corridor where our winds could be
more calm.
After sunrise tomorrow, expect any fog to burn off. Tomorrow should
be another really nice day as high pressure sits over the area.
Temps are expected to peak in the low 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
===== Sunday - Monday =====
Upper level closed low will be situated over the southeastern US for
Sunday into Monday, which will provide weak flow over the OH/TN
valleys. With upper ridging nosing into the central US, combined
with a lack of moisture and high pressure at the sfc, this will
support a dry and increasingly warm period. Highs for both days are
forecast to hit the low to mid 80s, which will be a few degrees
above normal for this time of year.
===== Tuesday - Thursday =====
Forecast confidence for the mid-week remains low given the current
guidance disagreements on the evolution of these tropical systems in
the Atlantic. There is good agreement on the track that Hurricane
Humberto is forecast to go, but the bigger uncertainty lies with
Invest 94L. Deterministic global solutions continue to generally
think this tropical system will make a US landfall, though most
ensemble spaghetti plots think otherwise. Even if we do see a
landfall in the southeastern US, questions remain on if the post-
tropical system will remain over the southeast or shift more
westward into the Appalachians. The GFS indicates we could see some
rain from the decaying system by Thursday, but the Euro suggest a
drier stretch until maybe the weekend. Another scenario that could
play out would be that the more western tropical system will
interact, possibly a Fujiwhara dance, with Humberto, and stay out to
sea. NBM continues to be optimistic for a mostly dry week, so will
continue with that for now (outside of 20% chances for our eastern
CWA border).
With a slight increase in cloud cover by this portion of the week,
we could end up with temps easing back down to near normal. This
translates to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions prevail through this forecast period. SCT-BKN clouds
around 5 kft will linger across south-central KY this morning. We'll
see SCT cumulus this afternoon and early evening. N/NNE winds will
be light through the period, increasing to 5-6 kts between 16-00Z
today.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 27, 1:38 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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