CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 7:48 AM EDT329
FXUS61 KCLE 241148
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
748 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front remains over the area as a low pressure
system moves northeast along this front through tonight. A
surface trough may linger into Friday before high pressure
builds in over the weekend. A weak cold front crosses the region
on Sunday before high pressure returns early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad positively-tilted upper-level troughing extends from the
Great Lakes region southwest towards the Southern Great Plains,
with an associated surface stationary front draped across the
area. Several shortwaves are expected to move northeast across
the area ahead of the broader trough, providing several periods
of better lift.
On radar we are starting to see that manifest in showers with
embedded thunderstorms near the I-75 corridor, which has been
producing moderate to brief, heavy rain at times. Should expect
this to continue as it expands eastward across the rest of the
forecast area today and tonight. PoPs peak in the 80-90% range
with areawide QPF averaging around 0.5", though locally higher
amounts are expected due to convective nature. However, there
are some indications that locally higher amounts of 1-2" and
possibly even higher may be possible where thunderstorms
persist, especially given slow storm motions and abnormally high
moisture content. The 00Z HREF seems to have the highest
probabilities in Northwest Ohio around the Toledo area but also
in other parts of Northern Ohio, including the Cleveland area.
Will have to keep an eye out for at least a low potential for
minor flooding where storms persist.
The potential for precipitation on Thursday has lowered
compared to previous forecasts as the low pressure and cold
front move east away from the area, should only see isolated or
scattered rain showers on Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface troughing may linger on Friday with isolated to
scattered rain showers still possible, especially downwind of
Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. High
pressure builds in thereafter and weather should be much
quieter. Temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues with temperatures near normal through
the long term period. No precipitation and highs in the upper 70s
are expected with lows in the mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Showers will continue to spread across all terminals this
morning, with visibilities ranging between 3 and 6 miles,
although it will take longer for cigs to dip into the MVFR
range since SE flow downslopes in a lot of areas. Pulled back on
the MVFR cigs through this afternoon, but still expect
visibility impacts. The steadiest showers will exit from west to
east starting at KTOL and KFDY late this morning, gradually
exiting KERI by late this evening, so the rain will hold on the
longest at NE Ohio and NW PA terminals leading to an overall wet
day. Despite the drier conditions tonight, attention will turn
to fog. Conditions are trending more favorable for widespread
fog at all sites except for KCAK, KYNG, and KERI where enough
clouds should keep minimum visibilities around 2 miles. Farther
west, visibilities should drop to one quarter to one half mile
between 06 and 12Z Thursday, so dense fog is likely.
SE winds of 5-10 knots are expected through mid morning. A lake
breeze will bring NE winds to KTOL, KCLE, and KERI this
afternoon. The lake breeze may even reach KFDY. Winds will turn
SE again this evening into tonight.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Thursday and Friday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light E to SE winds on Lake Erie this morning will
turn NE at 5-10 knots this afternoon due to a combination of a
lake breeze and low pressure approaching from the southwest.
Winds will eventually turn WNW by late tonight and Thursday and
increase to 10-15 knots as the low lifts up into Ontario
Province. At this time, still think that winds and waves will
stay below small craft criteria since guidance is coming into
better agreement on a relatively weak low. WNW winds will
decrease to 5-10 knots Thursday night and Friday as high
pressure builds in. This high will quickly depart to the east
with winds turning S at 5-10 knots ahead of a cold front Friday
night and Saturday before turning N to NE behind the front late
Saturday night and Sunday.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Saunders
NEAR TERM...Saunders
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 7:48 AM EDT---------------
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