IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 11:06 AM EDT999
FXUS63 KIND 221506
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1106 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and some thunderstorms will move through the area today,
with highest chances of moderate to heavy rainfall rates over
southern portions of the area.
- Milder with daily chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
through much of the work week.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Radar imagery as of 11am is showing a large area of stratiform rain
with embedded convective elements over the southern half of our CWA.
Further north, generally north of a line from Terre Haute to Kokomo,
dry conditions persist. Precipitation is moving to the northeast and
has gradually been intensifying. Of note is an apparent mesoscale
circulation just west of Vincennes. Convection has been most intense
near this feature with heavier rainfall rates. Little in the way of
lightning is noted, however. Given the current setup, the heaviest
rain is expected to remain south of the Terre Haute to Kokomo line,
with the most intense rates across our southern counties ...
associated with the mesoscale circulation. We lowered high
temperatures due to the ongoing steady rainfall which will persist
into the afternoon hours. The bulk of the rain should exit our area
later in the afternoon, leaving us with a dry overnight. Abundant
rainfall today may allow for increased fog potential tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
An upper level trough will bring rain to much of central Indiana
today, with rain chances lingering into tonight.
Early this morning, radar shows some light rain across
eastern Illinois and western Indiana associated with some upper
energy ahead of the main trough. Meanwhile, showers and
thunderstorms were across Missouri and southern Illinois, associated
with an MCV and the main energy in the upper trough.
As the upper trough moves east, forcing and moisture will continue
to move northeast into central Indiana this morning. Showers and
some thunderstorms will overspread much of the area, so will go with
likely or higher PoPs most areas at some point during the morning.
Another shot of forcing with the upper trough will impact mainly the
southeastern half of the area this afternoon. Increasing 850mb winds
(30-35kt) will aid in this forcing as well as keep the flow of
moisture into the area. Will continue high PoPs this afternoon
across the southeast half, with lower PoPs to the northwest.
HREF Probability Matched Mean QPF shows the potential for localized
2 inch amounts in the far south through today, and this looks
reasonable given the amount of moisture available and the increasing
850mb winds this afternoon.
Instability doesn't look impressive today given the expected rain
and cloud cover, so feel odds of any severe storms remain low even
with the increased wind fields this afternoon. If breaks in the
clouds appear and instability builds, an isolated strong storm
couldn't be ruled out in the south.
Clouds and rain will keep highs in the 70s today.
Forcing will diminish from northwest to southeast tonight, allowing
PoPs to diminish during the night. Light winds and a moist boundary
layer could lead to some patchy fog, especially if breaks in the
cloud cover appear. Will add a mention overnight. Lows will be in
the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A much different week is expected this week than last, with near
constant chances for showers and a few thunderstorms, and
significantly milder temperatures.
A large closed low will gradually drop into the region this week,
bringing relatively widespread cloud cover, near constant rain
chances (particularly during the work week) and significantly milder
temperatures.
Differences in placement and movement of the upper low with time
result in greater uncertainty and thus lower rain chances later in
the week, but suffice to say rain chances will be present basically
every period through at least Saturday. Total rainfall through the
week may be enough to put a substantial dent in longer term rainfall
deficits, though perhaps not enough to erase them completely. Dry
weather looks to return during the weekend into next week as the
upper level disturbances depart.
Temperatures will be substantially cooler this week, particularly
mid to late week, as a result of the closed low and associated cloud
cover/precipitation, with max/min temperatures much nearer
climatological normals in the mid 50s and mid 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR/IFR conditions expected throughout much of the period
- Showers and some thunderstorms at times today
Discussion:
Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to overspread the sites
this morning, with MVFR conditions developing. Widespread showers
will diminish from the north and west this afternoon, with
predominant MVFR/IFR ceilings becoming widespread (KLAF may be an
exception).
Overnight tonight, conditions will deteriorate in stratus and fog,
with IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility likely. Visibility may become
IFR as well, but will see how things develop before putting that in.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 22, 11:06 AM EDT---------------
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