BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 1:06 PM EDT882
FXUS61 KBOX 161706
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
106 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average
through mid week. A low chance for showers for coastal parts of
southern New England Wednesday night into Thursday night as a
low passes offshore. More autumn-like temperatures possible for
this weekend following a cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:
* Dry weather continues through today
Fog that develops overnight may linger a bit into the morning hours
today. Other than that, dry weather expected through the day with
highs in the mid 70s for most; temperatures may approach 80F for
spots in the CT Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Spot showers possible along the immediate south coast tonight
* The chance for some rain showers lingers through the day south of
I-90, increasing heading into the evening hours Wednesday
A subtropical low passing south of the region may bring some spot
showers along the immediate south coast late tonight into tomorrow
morning. PWAT values begin to increase overnight from the south, but
generally, the environment remains unfavorable for any widespread
soaking rains through tomorrow. Lows are expected to be similar to
Monday night's, settling into the upper 40s and low 50s, with the
coasts remaining slightly warmer in the upper 50s.
Mostly cloudy skies expected for Wednesday with isolated showers
throughout the day. These will be primarily south of I-90 through
the day, but a low chance remains for a stray shower or two moving
further north. Highs expected to be in the low to mid 70s due to
the expected cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Chance for showers increases Wednesday night with low passing
offshore, though soaking rain not expected
* Drier and cooler weather moves in behind a dry cold front Friday,
continuing through the weekend
The low passing south of the region will increase the chances for
showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Ensemble guidance is
leaning towards the highest chances for rain remaining south and
east of I-84. The GEFS remains the driest of the ensembles, keeping
probabilities for >0.1" of rainfall over 24 hours below even 10
percent for southern New England. The ECMWF ENS and GEPS continue to
have up to 30-35 percent probabilities up to Boston for >0.1" over
24 hours by Thursday afternoon, increasing further south. Mean PWAT
values peak late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning around 1.4"
across southern New England. However, widespread soaking rains are
not expected due to the lack of forcing and antecedent dry air
aloft. Once this low passes, quiet conditions return by Thursday
night.
A cold front is still expected to move through the region Friday
afternoon and evening, leaving cooler and drier conditions in its
wake. 925 mb temperatures fall as low as 5C Friday night after
increasing to close to 20C ahead of the front during the afternoon
Thursday and Friday. Saturday will feel more autumn-like with high
pressure and a drier airmass building in behind the front and 925 mb
temperatures around 10C during the day supporting highs mostly in
the 60s. Lows may even dip into the upper 30s for some spots in the
interior. With the incoming dry air, we could see an elevated fire
risk Saturday. Temperatures begin to warm again going into the start
of next week with continued high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00Z...High confidence.
VFR. Light east/northeast winds.
Tonight...High Confidence.
Mainly VFR with IFR/MVFR at ORH/BED. Lower ceilings/vsbys at BOS
are uncertain as the inland extent of lower ceilings and vsbys
across eastern MA is uncertain. Included a TEMPO group from
08-12Z for IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys to encompass the most likely
time of lower ceilings at BOS. Elsewhere VFR with light easterly
winds.
Wednesday...High confidence.
Generally VFR with patches of MVFR in SHRA along the south
coast, especially the Cape and Islands. Winds E up to 10 kts.
Wednesday Night...High Confidence
Mainly MVFR ceilings with -SHRA. Light easterly winds.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF
Fog bank over Boston Harbor may result in a brief period of
lower vsbys this afternoon. Also a chance for more fog/low
ceilings early tomorrow, but confidence is moderate as most
forecast guidances keeps this weather inland.
BDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, patchy FG.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, patchy FG.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Widespread FG.
Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Widespread FG.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday...High confidence.
The latest guidance leaned more towards Small Craft Advisory
criteria seas over the outer waters south of Block Island, so a
Small Craft Advisory has been hoisted starting this morning
continuing through 00z Thursday. Elsewhere, seas are expected to
remain below 5 ft through this period.
Winds expected to remain light over the eastern waters and
remain generally around 15 kts over the southern waters. Gusts
to 20 kts are possible, but should remain infrequent.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, patchy
fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Widespread fog. Local visibility
1 nm or less.
Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Widespread
fog.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Hrencecin/FT
NEAR TERM...Hrencecin
SHORT TERM...Hrencecin
LONG TERM...Hrencecin
AVIATION...Hrencecin/RM
MARINE...Hrencecin
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 1:06 PM EDT----------------
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