PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 20, 6:44 PM CDT179
FXUS63 KPAH 202344
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
644 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through Monday then
pleasantly cooler the remainder of the week. Highs will dip
back down into the 70s.
- Transitioning to a much welcomed wetter pattern this week with
daily rain chances starting from tomorrow. By the weekend we
could see a grand total of 2-3" of rain on the high end.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Satellite this afternoon showing a cu field trying to develop along
with some high level clouds streaming in from the southwest. On
radar several storms have formed outside the CWA to the northwest
associated with a lobe of vorticity that is swinging through this
afternoon and could touch off more scattered showers and storms
across northwest portions of the area. While we are not outlooked
for anything but general thunder, a few storms could be on the
stronger side and produce some gusty winds as they collapse. Chances
for scattered showers and storms continue tonight and ramp up into
tomorrow morning as the parent shortwave aloft lifts northward and a
second one pulls up behind it.
Above average temperatures are expected to continue through Monday
then a pleasant cool down is expected. Rain chances pick up even
more Sunday night through Monday as the aforementioned second
shortwave aloft comes through. Temperatures begin to cool down by
Tuesday as the pattern shifts to one that is wetter and more active
for the remainder of the week. Highs come down into the 70s for the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Chances for rain
continue every day through Friday afternoon with PWATs around 1.5".
This means that on the high end we could see a grand total around 2-
3" of rain by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A few storms remain near the northern edge of the Quad State
region early this evening with some activity in SEMO. Dry
conditions are expected overnight in the north while a group of
showers and some thunder move through closer to the MO/AR
border. These showers/storms may impact the vicinity of CGI/PAH
with the better chances to the southwest of those sites. Fog is
hinted at in models for SEMO but the combination of rain and
clouds should limit this. Shower/storm chances continue
tomorrow, and model spread is moderately high. Leaning towards
the morning group of storms in the south continuing eastward
through midday (mainly Western Kentucky but possibly affecting
KEVV/KOWB) while additional storms form in northern areas later
in the day.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 20, 6:44 PM CDT---------------
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