LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 5:59 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...638
FXUS63 KLMK 180959
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
559 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather is expected to continue through Friday, with ongoing
abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions likely to persist.
Saturday will be mostly dry.
* Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. However, overnight low temperatures will
be near normal with low 60s expected.
* Rain chances return Sunday through mid next week. Unfortunately,
rainfall amounts are expected to be light and unlikely to improve
overall drought conditions at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
High pressure and ridging remain over the region in the short term.
This will keep continued dry and warm conditions in place through
Friday. We will see large diurnal temperature swings with low
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s and highs in the upper 80s
and low 90s. Very dry profiles aloft and ample mixing up to 750mb
will allow for some dry air mix down in the afternoons today and
Friday. Expecting to see RH levels dip into the 23-28% range during
peak heating hours. Winds aloft are light, thus not expecting
surface winds to exceed 5-9mph. A few to scattered cumulus field is
likely to develop in the afternoons.
In the evening, skies will clear and winds will become calm to
light. Some patchy fog will be possible in the river valley areas in
the early morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
===== Friday Night - Wednesday =====
Troughing over the northern Plains will begin to shift east Friday
night into Saturday. Vorticity riding along the troughing will move
through the lower Ohio Valley. The showers and storms associated
with this vorticity, will quickly dissipate as there is so much dry
air over the region at this time. Could see a few sprinkles or light
rain over the far western counties, however, Friday night should
remain dry. Most guidance shows some decaying convection moving into
the region, but similar to last weekend, there is just too much dry
air in place and models aren't completely picking up on that.
Through the weekend, this troughing will remain over the Midwest
bringing several shortwave disturbances into the region. Saturday
has a better chance to remain dry, since southerly flow will not
return until Sunday.
Sunday, moisture will increase over the region as better troughing
and large scale ascent moves towards the region. These features will
increase shower and storm chances Sunday through mid next week.
Guidance continues to keep troughing northwest of the region, which
will bring the highest chances of precip over the northwest and
tapering lower to the southeast portions of the region. LREF
probabilities show a 50-60% chance of exceeding 0.5 inches of
rainfall and a 20-30% chance of exceeding 1.0 inches of rainfall
over the far northwestern portions of the region during this
timeframe.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some
patchy fog is possible in the morning, especially over the Lake
Cumberland region. Winds will remain light and variable over the
region. Skies should remain mostly clear through the period,
however, FEW-SCT cumulus is possible in the afternoon. In the
evening, winds will become calm and skies will clear.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 5:59 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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