JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 10:57 AM EDT802
FXUS63 KJKL 161457
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1057 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather will persist through Saturday morning.
- Temperatures will continue to be above normal through Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2025
No major changes planned to the forecast. We will continue to see
some high and mid level clouds drift east across the region
through this afternoon from the low pressure system located
over the Carolinas. Meanwhile, as the airmass destabilizes
through this afternoon, a few pop up showers or thunderstorms will
be possible, primarily across far southern portions of Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
09Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes
stretching south through the spine of the Appalachians Lower
pressure is found riding up the Mississippi River and western Ohio
Valley and another large area along coastal Carolina. For the most
part, eastern Kentucky is staying dry and relatively cloud free
this night with just some high ones drifting in from the east and
a smattering of lower clouds to the southwest. In addition, the
river valley fog shows up clearly on satellite early this morning.
These conditions also set up another decent night of radiational
cooling with a small ridge to valley temperature difference
underway as readings currently vary from the upper 50s in a few
of the sheltered locations to the low and mid 60s in the thermal belt
region on the hilltops. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running in the min
50s to lower 40s most places.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain well aligned
with each other aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a closed low trough over eastern North Carolina and
another area of troughing centered near Yellowstone with a narrowing
ridge between these features stretching over the Great Lakes. The
eastern trough will gradually slip off to the northeast and start
filling while the ridging weakens to our northwest on Wednesday, During
this time, some mid level energy will slip pwat into our area from the
eastern trough. The small model spread through the period supported
using the NBM as the starting point for the forecast grids again this
morning with minimal adjustments needed mainly just to tweak the
forecast this afternoon by adding some details from the latest CAMs
consensus guidance. Did also include a enhancements in the temperatures
temperatures for the area tonight some terrain.
Sensible weather features our warm weather pattern continuing for most
of the area with slightly cooler conditions in the east with more and
thickest cloud cover anticipated due to the upper trough and sfc low to
the east. Again there will be enough moisture and upper level support
around to allow for a few pop-up showers and stray thunderstorm in
the Cumberland Valley nearer to the Tennessee border this afternoon
during peak heating. Anticipate another similar night compared to this
night heading into Wednesday morning with a ridge to valley temperature
split and mainly just some river valley fog. Wednesday looks like another
warm day with minimal threat for any convection as the upper levels
become less favorable, winds will be light through the period away from
any of the potential thunderstorms this afternoon.
The changes to the NBM starting point were again primarily focused
on adjusting the Pops per the latest CAMs consensus and keeping
just enough to mention for the afternoon in the far southern
portions of the CWA. Temperatures were not changed much aside from
enhancing ridge to valley difference tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast on this shift were to push the
better Pop and thunder chances back another 12-24 hours until later to the
weekend. Did also continue the terrain based adjustments for temperatures
each night through the rest of the week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
By Wednesday, the upper-level low off the mid-Atlantic will
transition from a distinct closed low to an open shortwave. This
shortwave will be absorbed into a deepening longwave trough well
to our northeast in the Labrador Sea from Wednesday night into the
weekend. To our west, the polar jet remains ridged well into
central Canada through the end of the week. An upper-level
shortwave will be settled in the northern Missouri River Valley by
Wednesday morning, with weak zonal flow keeping its eastward
movement minimal through the week and into the weekend.
Models remain in good agreement about the pattern through Thursday,
and have been persistently trending towards a later and later
arrival time of the shortwave trough this weekend. Cluster analysis
of WPC and LREF data reveals that the model variability doesn't
increase until Friday, and even then the primary forecast
uncertainty results from differences in amplitude of the developing
trough well to the north and out of the sphere of influence of our
forecast area. NBM PoPs reflect the trend towards further slowing of
the mid-country system, keeping PoPs <20% through Saturday morning.
Even so, highest PoPs for the week are at the end of the
period, maxing out at 30-40% on Sunday. Would not be surprised if
these low rain chances continue getting pushed later and later by
the persistent blocking across the central US.
We appear to get the dry conveyor belt of the Carolina coast
system as it moves off. This low-level dry air advection would
help to reduce the chances of overnight fog, though some patchy
valley fog will still be possible Wednesday night.
Otherwise, ridging builds behind the departing coastal system
Thursday through Sunday. Wednesday's high temps will be in the mid
80s across most of eastern Kentucky and in the 70s near the eastern
ridgetops. Warm air advection won't be overly strong with weak (10kt
or less) low-level flow, so temperature increases will be subtle and
gradual, only 1-2 degrees each day over the course of several
days. Temperatures may approach 90 degrees in portions of central
Kentucky on Friday, with locations in the Cumberland Mountains
remaining 10-15 degrees cooler. Minimum temperatures will start
out in the low to mid 50s Wednesday night, increasing to the low
60s by Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for most of the period.
Variable high cloud cover is expected at times today, especially east
of I-75, courtesy of a nearby upper level trough and the sfc low to the
east. Look for the limited river valley fog this morning to clear out
between 13 and 14Z but likely not impact any of the TAF sites. Any
convection this afternoon will probably stay south and east of all TAF
terminals, as well. Anticipate Fog formation again late tonight with
localized visibility reductions in the favored river valleys. The dominant
surface high pressure system in place will keep the winds light/variable
through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GREIF/CAMDEN
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 10:57 AM EDT---------------
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