LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 7:40 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...095
FXUS63 KLMK 142340
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
740 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weather is expected over the next week. With most of the
region experiencing abnormally dry or moderate drought conditions
already, many counties have burn bans in place at this time.
Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper
80s to the lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Isolated showers and storms are tracking into the forecast area
early this morning, driven by a upper level embedded shortwave
swinging down in the general troughing pattern and a slight uptick
in 850mb winds. Despite ACARS soundings showing a dry layer from the
sfc up to around 850mb, area traffic webcams show wet roads in the
Louisville metro, indicating rain rates are overcoming the dry low
levels. Some cells have picked up in lightning strikes, likely due
to the storms feeding off lingering MUCAPE. Fortunately these storms
are elevated, but given the dry air in the column, could still see
some wind gusts as a DCAPE gradient exists over the area.
We'll continue to see showers and storms stream from north to south
through the area this morning, though severe weather chances are low
but a few strong storms will remain possible. CAMs are in fairly
good agreement of seeing isolate to scattered activity continue
across central KY after 12z today, potentially as late as 15-17z
today. A drier trend will settle in by the afternoon, along with
clearing skycover. As a result of morning precip and lingering
clouds, our sfc temps should be slightly lower than yesterday.
Expect most of the area to hit the mid to upper 80s, though some of
our western most counties could approach 90. The upper level flow
will continue to feature an omega block type pattern with central
CONUS ridging, and troughing on the coasts. This pattern will begin
to break down by tonight.
Some CAMs do indicate some isolated precip development overnight
again in western KY, closer to a weak sfc boundary and where higher
PWAT axis is expected to be. Currently expect a dry night, though
would not be surprised if a low chance PoP would be needed in our
west later on if the PWAT axis shifts a little more east. Generally
though, do expect a quiet weather night with mostly clear skycover.
Temps are forecast to drop into the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
===== Monday - Wednesday =====
The upper level flow will transition into a Rex block pattern by
Monday, with the upper level high/ridge shifting over the Great
Lakes, and the East Coast trough closing off into an upper low over
the southeastern US. Any moisture associated with the low will
likely remain over the Carolinas, which keeps a dry forecast for the
first half of the upcoming week. This blocking pattern will likely
begin to break down on Wednesday as another trough swings across the
High Plains.
Above normal temps are expected during this time, with daily highs
hitting the lower 90s. Fortunately heat indices will not deviate
much from the sensible temps as dewpoints will remain in the upper
50s to low 60s during the afternoons.
As stated in the previous discussion, the increasingly dry weather
will worsen drought conditions across the area. With fuels
continuing to dry out, this may lead to some areas seeing an
elevated fire risk. As such, numerous counties have burn bans in
place at this time.
===== Thursday - Saturday =====
The upper trough over the High Plains will pivot across the central
US in the back half of the week, and may end up deepening into an
upper closed low by the weekend. It will drive a weak but elongated
frontal boundary through the central part of the country, and will
bring precip chances back to the region by Thursday night and into
Friday and the weekend. Given the dry conditions as mentioned above,
any rain would be a welcome sight to the area. PoPs are limited, as
this front could be lacking a deeper moisture pool to work with. As
such, QPF for later this week is still meager, with just a few
hundredths in the forecast for now.
Thursday looks to be our final day of temps hitting the 90s, as
increased cloud cover and falling heights aloft will support a
slight drop in temps for Friday and into the weekend. Forecast highs
currently target upper 80s for Friday, but low to mid 80s for
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Things are quiet across the region at this hour, and expecting
that to continue through this TAF cycle. Surface winds will go calm
or very light and generally out of the E tonight, along with mostly
clear skies. Could have some brief vis restrictions at BWG, but no
confident enough to go with more than a TEMPO 6 SM mention for now.
Otherwise, look for light to steady ESE to SE winds on Monday with
only a few VFR clouds to note.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...BJS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 7:40 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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