LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 1:02 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...187
FXUS63 KLMK 080502
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
102 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chilly early Monday morning, with lows in the 40s.
* Pleasant weather continues through the week, with gradually
rising temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Skies are partly to mostly sunny this afternoon, with scattered
cumulus over central KY. An upper level shortwave trough is rotating
through the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley this afternoon. This
feature, along with the larger scale upper trough, will lift further
off to the northeast through the short term forecast period.
Locally, we'll see gradual height rises aloft as sfc high pressure
slides from Iowa across northern IN/OH on its way to the Northeast
by Monday night.
This pattern will bring fair weather. The low-level airmass is
notably dry with sfc dewpoints falling into the 40s. NW winds are
breezy, with gusts up to 15-20 mph at times. These winds will
diminish with sunset. More low-level mixing this afternoon will
likely result in less fog formation tonight than we saw last night.
Patchy fog will still be possible early Monday, mainly in river
valleys.
As the high passes by just to our north, light winds will veer N/NE
overnight. Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s.
Low to mid 40s are anticipated across much of southern IN and north-
central KY, with mid/upper 40s in south-central KY and urban areas.
After the chilly start, Monday looks beautiful with mostly sunny
skies and NE winds increasing to 5-10 mph. Afternoon temperatures
will warm into the mid/upper 70s. Monday night will again be cool
with light winds and mostly clear skies. We may see a few more
clouds start to spread in from the south by early Tuesday. Morning
lows will be in the mid 40s to around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Upper level shortwave troughing is forecast to move over the Midwest
by Tuesday, before amplifying as it drops southeast over the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley through Thursday. We'll see modest warm, moist
air advection on Tuesday via southerly return flow. Dry weather is
likely to continue, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s.
An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify over the central CONUS
during the mid to late week period, sandwiched between two upper
level troughs over the western and eastern CONUS. This more
persistent, blocking pattern still appears likely to give us an
extended stretch of dry, warm weather. We may see slightly more
cloud cover at times Wednesday into Thursday, but overall, it'll
still be a dry environment with a very low chance for rainfall.
Highs will generally be in the 80s, with lows in the 50s to near 60.
The dry stretch appears likely to continue into the weekend, though
confidence in the forecast details is lower beyond Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming period. Winds
overnight look to be generally light out of the northeast. Overall
confidence in fog remains quite low given drier air across the
region. For tonight and Tuesday, continued VFR conditions are
expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Record Low Temperatures Possible...
Mon, Sept 8th Tue, Sept 9th
Rec (Yr) | FCST Rec (Yr) | FCST
SDF 46 (1956) | 50 44 (1883) | 52
LEX 45 (1956) | 45 45 (2024) | 46
BWG 47 (1956) | 49 44 (1958) | 51
FFT 42 (1988) | 44 43 (2024) | 46
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM....EBW
AVIATION.....MJ
CLIMATE......EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 1:02 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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