PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 7:30 PM CDT636
FXUS63 KPAH 060030
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
730 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An advancing cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms
for the area through tonight, lingering into early Saturday. A
brief window for strong to potentially severe storms exists
across mainly the southern Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky late this afternoon into early this evening.
- Nice, cool, dry, below normal high temperatures in the 70s
will be incoming behind the cold front, lasting through the
weekend and into early next week. A mid to late week warmup
will return temperatures into and thru the 80s, with some
locations possibly seeing 90 degrees by Thursday or Friday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Updated aviation section for 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A cold front's advance across the area will bring showers and
thunderstorms back into our forecast. The potential for a few
strong to severe storms exists, mainly along and just ahead of
the boundary, across the southern Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky, where a combo of temperatures approaching the 90s and
a surge of dew points to the 70s helps stiffen instability
fields with CAPE's running in excess of 1000 J/KG and 30-35 kts
of effective shear amidst 6-7C/KM lapse rates. The negating
factors include the surface boundary's punch of dry air that is
already occurring, with dew points down to near 50F in our
northern CWA while our southeast still has 70F. The 00Z CAM's
and now the 12Z runs all point to a narrow window of space and
time in our far south and southeast from about 21z-02z for
potential strong-svr storms, after which fropa yields a broader,
higher pop but all of the aforementioned strong-svr parameters
begin dropping off. This is all basically in line with and
mirrors previous runs, with marginal risk potential holding
firm here, while higher risk potential remains affixed to the
east.
Regarding QPF, all of us should receive at least some rainfall,
with amounts generally less than 1/4" across our northwest, but
potentially up to about an inch in our far southeast as pops
spike up to categorical there with fropa tonight. This will be
much welcomed rainfall for our still D0/D1 CWA. As heights
continue to fall with the long wave trof digging into Saturday,
it looks like these pops may linger into/thru the early part of
the day there (in the south/east) until the cooler and drier
air takes over. A pleasant return to dry/cool highs in the 70s
takes hold this weekend and continues thru early next week,
before another warmup into/thru the 80s occurs over the middle
to latter parts of the week. We'll stay dry as high pressure
keeps dew points, which fall into the 40s behind fropa, at bay
with an increase only back into the 50s during the warmup
period. However, the marked drop in dew points does yield a dip
in afternoon minimum RH into the 20s percentile next week, for
fire wx planning purposes. he start week dew points in the 40s
will plummet RH values into the 20s minima for fire wx planning.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
On and off showers are possible at all TAF sites until 12z-15z,
and the best chances for a few thunderstorms are at KCGI/KPAH
between 05z-12z. MVFR vsbys may briefly accompany shra/tsra
activity, otherwise predominantly VFR conditions are expected
with BKN-OVC mid/high clouds. Clouds will scatter out from west
to east between 15z-18z. Winds will be from northwest to north
at 3-10kts through the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 5, 7:30 PM CDT---------------
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