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092 FXUS64 KLIX 261728AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Now through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025Remaining in the northeast periphery of the upper ridge overTexas, our area remains under dry northwesterly flow. This along with rather poor moisture quality has limited rain chances across the region. A surface front resides just south of the coast, but convection is still having a difficult time developing despite subtle isentropic upglide. Going into Wednesday expect the ridge to pull west a bit over central Texas and a surface high to move eastward from the MS/Ohio River Valleys toward the southern and mid Appalachians. This will help transition winds to an easterly direction and with slightly lower heights/thicknesses, expect temperatures to be just a skosh cooler generally around average for this time of year. (Frye)&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025The long term begins with the dry northwest flow continuing overour region. An impulse across the Ozarks and surface front willmove southeast toward our region by Friday. The front is expectedto move southward and stall over or just south of our regionSaturday and into Sunday. This will enhance diurnally driven POPsfor the region. From this point the globals diverge a bit goinginto late weekend and early next week. The ECMWF brings the frontall the way through the region and even takes it as far south ofthe central Gulf. However, the GFS is much slower and keeps thefront around here longer with a strong QPF signal lingering. ECMcompletely dries out the region...so needless to say lowerconfidence with Day 6 and 7 POPs. That said, temperatures will beheld down during the daytime this weekend due to higher POPs. (Frye)&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025VFR conditions expected through the cycle. Cannot rule out anisolated shower for HUM, however, the potential is too low to mention at this time. Winds will remain generally easterly and should be less than 10kts. (Frye)&&.MARINE...Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025Light to moderate winds and seas are expected as a front settlesacross the local waters through midweek. Cautionary headlines maybe needed. Eventually, high pressure will build southward, whichwill lighten winds and lower seas. However, rain chances go backup this weekend as a front stalls out over the region allowing foran enhancement to nocturnal marine convection. Expected locallyhigher winds and seas around convection. (Frye) &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 68 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 20 BTR 71 91 71 93 / 10 20 0 20 ASD 69 90 68 91 / 0 10 0 10 MSY 77 92 76 93 / 0 20 0 10 GPT 70 89 70 90 / 0 10 0 10 PQL 67 90 67 91 / 0 10 0 10 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RDFLONG TERM....RDFAVIATION...RDFMARINE...RDF
