CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:07 AM EDT650
FXUS61 KCLE 310707
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
307 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues through early next week. Strong cold
front late Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper trough axis dropping in from the north this early morning will
close off over the mid Atlantic this afternoon and tonight. The
forecast remains dry for the region despite the proximity of the low
pressure system to the east, and very little effects in terms of
cloud cover are expected. Biggest influence will be the temperatures
on the cooler side continue with slight airmass modification due to
insolation. Low to mid 70s today, not as cool tonight but still in
the upper 40s to lower 50s away from the immediate lakeshore, and
mid to upper 70s Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level trough axis traverses the Mississippi Valley and heads
into the Ohio Valley for Wednesday, ahead of a potent cold front
cutting through the northern plains and in the Great Lakes. POPs
return to the forecast in the short term after a hiatus for
Wednesday with the upper trough axis. Low QPF on the front end of
this activity while temperatures remain near to slightly below
normal for both Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Very deep closed low aloft will drop quickly from the Canadian
prairies in the northern Great Lakes bringing 500mb heights
Wednesday night through Thursday night 3-4 standard deviations below
normal just to the west of the CWA. An associated surface low
pressure system will strengthen accordingly and send a cold front
through the are late Wednesday night into Thursday. Expecting a line
of anafrontal convection immediately following the
Wednesday/Wednesday night precipitation chances from the
aforementioned southern upper trough. 850mb temperatures will fall
back into the single digits. As the system occludes over northern
Ontario without any additional southern progression, the coolest air
will remain well north of the CWA. Back into the 60s for Thursday
and Friday as this preview of fall continues.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period at all
terminals as high pressure builds across the region. There will
be potential for valley fog to form, though potential is low
that there will be impacts to terminals through the early
morning. Winds will continue to be light and variable and then
turn predominantly out of the northeast on Sunday at 5-10
knots. KCLE and KERI and areas along the lake shore may see
stronger winds, but still expect to be less than 15 knots.
Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. On Wednesday,
isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR
are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over Lake Erie will allow for conditions to remain
quiet through the start of this week. North to northeast winds
of 5-10 knots will allow waves to build to less than 2 feet
across the nearshore areas. On Wednesday, a cold front will
approach from the west, allowing for a shift to south-southwest
winds at 10-15 knots. As the cold front moves east late
Wednesday through Thursday, winds will continue to gain more of
a westerly component and increase to 20-25 knots. This period
will likely be the next time any marine headlines will be needed
across Lake Erie.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...23
MARINE...04
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 31, 3:07 AM EDT---------------
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